..

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

HERDIMMUNITY--Population-Driven Transmission Model & --COVID-19 SUSTAINABILITY THRESHOLD

IMMEDREL//ATTN:CD/TTYPFWD//VIA:JC@EOCSYND//URGENT//UNCLSF


     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Syndicated)--While some in the professional medical field are busy blaming the federal government for failure in its effort to halt the spread of coronavirus, most are actually working tirelessly out in the field making every effort to do just that. The purpose of the criticism serves no purpose at all, in fact, the parameters required for a viral outbreak to become an epidemic have no relation at all to government intervention, or lack thereof. Dobson and Carper have noted in BioScience journal, in the published article, "Infectious Diseases and Human Population History," the root cause is the size of the population;


     "Epidemiological theory suggests that host population is critical in determining whether a pathogen can become established and remain endemic in a population." (Dobson, Carper, 116)
Epidemiology is the study of outbreaks, endemic means restricted to a region. What's clear from the statement is that the more susceptible hosts available, the more likely the virus will take hold. It is known as the Threshold for Disease Establishment (H, subscript "t"). The low end is 500,000 with an estimate of 700,000 for measles. Anywhere the population exceeds the threshold, the probability of an epidemic is high from a sheer mathematical standpoint. H(t) is based on the ratio of infection R(0) which can be greater or less than zero (0), and determines whether the infections are increasing or decreasing. As for the use of vaccinations to control and eradicate a pathogen, the study cites the concept of "herd immunity," original terminology to control disease in cattle. Noted is that as more of the population is inoculated, the infected persons have limited contact with those susceptible, but adds;
     "As the percentage of the population that is immunized increases, there are linear decreases in the total incidence of the disease in the population and increasingly rapid decreases in amongst the proportion of individuals not vaccinated." (124)
That linear, or rapid, decrease is the gradual recession of the virus in the population over time. According to an article in The Sheboygan Press with respect to inoculation by the Salk vaccine against polio in 1957;
     "The polio rate fell dramatically in 1956--from a peak of 57,879 cases in  1952 and 29,983 in 1955 to 'only' 15,128 lats (sp) year." (Sheboygan Press, 2)
This is an indicator of one of the first inoculation programs and its case rate decrease, which was not linear, but also not exponential, best described as a "half-life." The coronavirus epidemic began in China in 2019, thus labeled "COVID-19." It spread rapidly across the United States in 2020, with the initial flareups along the West coast in California and Washington, where the population could sustain the spread. By the end of the year, the epidemic had become an endemic pandemic. In December, the first wave of vaccine rollouts was distributed with the same unpredictable reactions as found in those of the Salk vaccine and the temporal shortfall of the killed live-virus types for measles inoculations. Today, ground-zero of the resilience of the pathogen can be found in one of the largest population centers in the United States, Los Angeles. 
     Current distribution of the available vaccines is ongoing, but across the board throughout the health departments nationwide. That is not, according to the Dobson-Carper model regarding population-driven transmission of the virus, the ideal procedure. The best approach would be to focus on Los Angeles itself, inoculate the entire city, surrounding counties and restrict incoming individual traffic. Forget the ideal, much-debated (NY Times, CNN) "herd-immunity" percentage and break the transmission ratio, drive it into negative territory. That would be the ultimate test of the population-driven transmission model. Available statistics reveal the highest transmission component, by age, gender, ethnic origin, and those would be the first wave target inoculations; not necessarily front line workers or society "essentials." Vaccinating the Vice-President was all for show with little practical application as he is isolated, quarantined enough, to be neither a transmitter nor a host. Statistics also reveal the highest susceptible hosts in the population. 

As Hospitals Roll Out COVID-19 Vaccines, Health Care Workers Describe Chaos And Anger

Health care workers across the country have started receiving COVID-19 vaccines, but doctors and nurses at some of the nation's top hospitals are raising the alarm, charging that vaccine distribution has been unfair and a chaotic "free-for-all."
     The unknown factor is how long the eradication of coronavirus will take, not just in the United States, but globally. Aside from new hysteria created in the media over more virulent strains of the virus compounding the difficulty in success of the base model vaccine, the prospect of serum combination into a cure-all elixir to limit all strains is just not possible for the time being. Dr. Fauci noted the rollout is lagging but expects it to reach desirable levels by April, 2021. He added that effective herd immunity ranges could be achieved by the end of next summer. (CNN, State of the Union) For the United States, with its penchant in the media and disgruntled, overwhelmed medical professionals for defeatism, that may not be good enough, but it will have to do. 
Cited
Dobson, Andrew P., and E. Robin Carper. “Infectious Diseases and Human Population History.” BioScience, vol. 46, no. 2, 1996, pp. 115–126. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/1312814. Accessed 29 Dec. 2020.
Dr. Salk Still Trying To Improve Vaccine, The Sheboygan Press, 30 March 1957, Page 2.
     
IMMEDREL//ATTN:CD/TTYPFWD//VIA:JC@EOCSYND//URGENT//UNCLSF
Posted by at

HERDIMMUNITY--"Vaccine Failure" Primer--POLIO, MEASLES, #COVID-19

   
IMMEDREL//ATTN:CD@TTYPNT//VIA/JCW/EOC//UNCLSF//TCNETDIST
  

     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Syndicated) --" 'The public's patience has been snapped by the revelation that the Eisenhower administration failed utterly to anticipate and plan for even the most fundamental problem' regarding distribution of Salk polio vaccine.' " (Wisconsin State Journal, 2)


     The year was 1955, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin adopted the above resolution adding that the federal government failed to insure proper testing and rationing of the short supply. Other problems with the rollout of the polio vaccine involved the serum itself, as reported in the UK by The Guardian;
     "This occurrence may have been due to vaccine which, by deficiency in the tests themselves, or by the error in the performance of the tests, passed the established safety procedures and yet contained sufficiently large amounts of live viruses to infect a small number of recipients." (The Guardian, 7)
The particular blend of polio vaccine had, according to the article, three different types of polio virus mixed together, accounting for the presence of remaining live viruses. That same month, the Idaho State Public Health Department banned the use of the Salk vaccine, citing " 'developers and promoters' of the vaccine of an apparent 'lack of interest' in the polio outbreak which followed inoculations." (Los Angeles Evening City News, 3) The developer of the vaccine was Cutter Laboratories of Berkeley, California. It was cleared of the failure when the federal government eventually accepted blame due to inadequate safety standards. Following a four month investigation, there was still no concrete explanation as to why the system failed. What can be found, even with the limited effectiveness of the Salk vaccine, was the outcome itself, as reported in 1957 by The Sheboygan Press;
     "The polio rate fell dramatically in 1956--from a peak of 57,879 cases in  1952 and 29,983 in 1955 to 'only' 15,128 lats (sp) year." (Sheboygan Press, 2)
This is an indicator of one of the first inoculation programs and its case rate decrease, which was not linear, but also not exponential, best described as a "half-life." 
     The failures related to the measles in the 1970s fell within the expected range of three to five per cent with the live virus but for different reasons, chronicled in Pennsylvania's Lebanon Daily News and attributed to two different strains of the virus;
     "The incubation for regular measles is seven to 14 days and for German measles, 14 to 21 days. Thus a child may have been exposed to measles lone or two weeks before and have the disease in his system at the time the vaccine is given." (Lebanon Daily News, 14)
By mid-1975, a resurgence of measles in California was attributed not to the actual failure of the vaccine or the lack of mass inoculation, but to the actual potency, or life, of the vaccine itself;
     "Many children were immunized during the period 1963 to 1968 with inactive or killed virus. The immunity associated with this vaccine was relative short in duration." (Mendocino Coast Beacon, 10)
The article also noted some of the vaccine might have failed due to improper storage and warned that "no vaccine is 100% effective." Nationally at the time, measles hotspots were popping up and were attributed to "failure" although the characterization may have been misleading. No one knew for certain just how long the initial inoculations in the late 60s along with booster shots were effective,. but the answer to that came a few years later. 
     Some of the shortfalls echoed in the history of vaccinations relating to polipo and the measles can be found in the early rollout of COVID-19 vaccines:

Long lines, crashing websites, conflicting information confound COVID-19 vaccine rollout to Florida seniors

"I really need this vaccine," Mary Ravis said. She and her husband, 69 and 72 years old, respectively, have underlying health conditions. "We figured it would fill up fast."

Cited
State Democrats Hit Government's Vaccine 'Failures', Wisconsin State Journal, 23 May 1955, Page 2.
Live Virus Found in Vaccine, The Guardian, 11 June 1955, Page 7.
Idaho Bans Salk Vaccine As Failure, Los Angeles Evening City News, 27 June 1955, Page 3.
Dr. Salk Still Trying To Improve Vaccine, The Sheboygan Press, 30 March 1957, Page 2.
Safeguard Your Health, More on Measles, Lebanon Daily News, 03 June 1971, Page 14. 
Measles On The Increase, Vaccinations Urged, Mendocino Coast Beacon, 17 July 1975, Page 10.

IMMEDREL//ATTN:CD@TTYPNT//VIA/JCW/EOC//UNCLSF//TCNETDIST
Posted by at

Monday, December 28, 2020

COVID19--Herd Immunity, Stochastic Threshold--FAUCI & MEASLES DYNAMICS

IMMEDREL//ATTN:CD@TCNET//VIA/JC(EOC)//TTYP/UNCLSF
     "What's not being addressed...is the rate of decline in the population..."


       Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Net)--Appearing on CNN's State of the Union yesterday hosted by Dana Bash, foremost immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci was forced to respond to his wildly gyrating projections on the concept of "herd immunity." Fauci used known statistics related to the measles in order to make his estimate, which was any where from 75-80 percent on the lower end of the spectrum, to 90-95 percent on the higher end. In addition, asked "when" all of the vaccines would be administered to achieve at least the mid-range, Fauci reported not until the end of Summer, 2021. Called out on the fact that stats were slow to show just how many shots had been given, the immunologist stated there is always some reporting confusion when a n ew vaccine is administered. Even then, the entire concept of "herd immunity" appears to be based on what he referred to its relationship to another highly infectious respiratory illness, the measles. A review of primary sources regarding measles and herd immunity produces quite a different story.   


     In 1971, the question of the effectiveness of a vaccine against a disease was questioned by Dr. John M. Leedom of the USC School of Medicine in an article published by Robert Cooke in the Town Talk (Alexandria, Louisiana);
     "Furthermore, Leedom says, vaccinating a great number of persons doesn't appear to produce a desired effect, an effect called herd immunity. 'We used to think that if we hit a magic percentage figure an epidemic couldn't be sustained...Yet some studies with different populations show that immunity rates as high as 80 per cent aren't enough to protect the rest of the population. We found that rubella (German measles) epidemics proceed until 100 per cent of the susceptible persons have been infected.' " 
Leedom also noted in the article that even though the vaccine was effective in those inoculated, a "weak " form of the virus was still passed on to those in close proximity. By contrast, a decade before that, the new polio vaccines didn't guarantee a slowdown or eradication of the highly contagious disease, as reported in 1961 by the Fort Collins Coloradoan;
     "For polio vaccination does not confer so-called 'herd' immunity. Vaccination of a fair number of individuals in the population does not suppress the disease." 
That report filed by the Colorado Medical Society. Still other reports from the early 60s indicated that at least one type of oral vaccine would create herd immunity in those who received no inoculation at all, so the matter could only be settled in the overall statistics. Dr. H.H. Williams, Dayton City Health commissioner, had this to say in 1963 regarding polio vaccination;
     "WHEN THE immunization rate gets so high in the herd, the disease does not spread."
Still, that seems to be more wishful thinking than proven scientific fact. Doctors, immunologists and developers of truth serum that offer elixir remedies can never be sure of the outcome until the actual doses are administered. Even then, strains of the original virus appear in the course of mass inoculation that might bypass the cure. All of this is ignored in the face of the spread of the contagion, replaced by some magical percentage that will eradicate the epidemic. That brings up yet another point that hasn't been addressed.
      The nation has watched throughout the course of 2020 the spike in coronavirus cases and the number of deaths that resulted. Several graphs show and compare confirmed-suspected cases, hospitalized and ICU committed cases, and the casualty count itself. The graphs are impressive, exponential, by nature, some taking into account weighted coefficients; that's about as far as it goes.
Dr. Fauci, in his SOTU interview with Dana Bash, gave only estimates to the percentages projected to achioeve the mythical herd immunity that will rescue the population from the "scourge;"

     (02:48) FAUCI: "It's a guesstimate, I gave a range..."
     (03:57) FAUCI: "I think we're going to get there, end of March, beginning of April..."
     (04:05) FAUCI: "It's probably going to take several months..."

What's not being addressed in the interview is the rate of decline in the population. Will that be according to some logarithmic decay equation in much the same way the surge was plotted, or will it be a slow, gradual, almost linear reduction in the road to recovery? Will the pandemic disappear as fast as it appeared? 


     The answer to that would be in the measles modelling at JSTOR by Bjornstad, Finkelstadt and Grenfell, "The cycles are driven by a rapid (initially roughly exponential) depletion of susceptible hosts," which has already occurred. The authors then establish a stochastic disease model. Several of the plots are innovative and beyond the standard time plotted exponential graphs used currently to reflect infections; one of which is infected versus available population. This particular graph plot might indicate just how far the virus can reach out into the population before an overall un-inoculated herd immunity could possibly take effect. Although the x-axis on the graph indicates a "Susceptible population," that doesn't mean everyone who comes into contact with the virus will get sick. On the y-axis, "Infected population" also does not show that everyone exposed to the virus will get sick, merely exposed. 



     In yet another model, a number of variables are taken into account that would have an effect on the growth rate of the virus in the community, such as number of "immigrants," the growth rate, community size, and proportion infected. That may explain why, in all of the California purple tier regions, the one that hasn't really dropped below the 15 per cent ICU occupancy level, has been in the far north above Sacramento. 
     The measles epidemic dynamics are worth noting, but to a greater degree in what has been presented by health officials. Two things still remain vague with relation to herd immunity and mass inoculation, not made clear by Dr. Fauci. The first is where to predict to peak in the graph, which may be considered a stochastic, random model since it's upward turn post-Thanksgiving. The second is the downturn dynamics of the pandemic as vaccinations increase, the nature of the slope of the graph, and not just related to time.
     The vaccine driven decrease of infection rate in a population can be found in the Bioscience Journal article by Dobson and Carper, Infectious Diseases and Human Population History;
     "One of the major additional effects is the reduction of infected individuals in the population due to the reduced number of contacts that infected individuals have with susceptible individuals. The effect is called herd immunity. As the percentage of the population that is immunized increases, there are linear decreases in the total incidences of the disease in the population  and increasingly rapid decreases amongst the proportion of individuals not vaccinated."  (Dobson, Carper, 124)
The rapidly accelerating graph as the pandemic sweeps across the population may well not be mirrored as the disease wanes in proportion to vaccination and the in-place existing mitigation measures. Thus, as the pandemic appeared overnight, it may take months, possibly years, for it to be completely eradicated even with 100 percent herd immunity.

LA County To Require 10-Day Quarantine For Travelers

“Because of the likelihood of exposure to COVID-19 while traveling outside of L.A County, for everyone that traveled or are planning to travel back into L.A. County, you must quarantine for 10 days,” the department said in a news release.
In fact, the exact opposite is true. The virus thrives where the population is dense as it has a large selection of susceptible individuals to infect. Someone travelling outside of the county, to a remote area where the rate is lower, as in Northern California, has a greater chance of contaminating that region and should be quarantined there upon arrival.
Cited
Cooke, R., Town Talk, 29 September 1971, Page 30.
The Fort Collins Coloradoan, 11 May 1961, Page 13
Dayton Daily News, 13 January 1963, Page 21.

Bjørnstad, Ottar N., et al. “Dynamics of Measles Epidemics: Estimating Scaling of Transmission Rates Using a Time Series SIR Model.” Ecological Monographs, vol. 72, no. 2, 2002, pp. 169–184. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/3100023. Accessed 28 Dec. 2020.

Dobson, Andrew P., and E. Robin Carper. “Infectious Diseases and Human Population History.” BioScience, vol. 46, no. 2, 1996, pp. 115–126. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/1312814. Accessed 29 Dec. 2020.



IMMEDREL//ATTN:CD@TCNET//VIA/JC(EOC)//TTYP/UNCLSF
Posted by at

COVID19--"Herd Immunity" Origin--CATTLE, EUGENICS & FAUCI

ATTN: IMMEDREL//CD@TCNET/VIA/JC/EOC//UNCLSF//TTYP

                  "No sugar coating, you're saying 75-80 percent is the goal...," Dana Bash, CNN          

     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Net)--   At the turn of the last century, the cattle industry was inflicted with brucellosis, also known by its more common name of "contagious abortion," as reported in the Kansas Farmer;    
     "6. Abortion disease can be controlled by proper methods of herd management. Control is dependent on three fundamental principles: (1) Preventing the spread of infection. (2) Developing herd immunity. (3) Treating affected animals to promote recovery and preserve the reproductive function." 


     The pamphlet notes that the original method of containing brucellosis was to send all of the stock to the block. That thinking gradually evolved to keeping the healthy cattle that produced healthy offspring as they appeared to be immune to the disease;
     "The vigorous heifer calves which reach maturity in spite of the disease are naturally from the more resistant cows and they seem to inherit this tolerance."
It suggested that "Herd improvement can also be secured through the use of pure-bred sires."  
The pamphlet recommends not introducing new breeding cows into the herd, infection persisted where cows were constantly bought and sold. The proper course of action was based directly on;
     "Herd immunity is developed, therefore, by retaining the immune cows, raising the calves, and avoiding the introduction of foreign cattle."
It is a terrifying thought that in the future, if not with coronavirus, the next more resilient strain of a deadly virus might well force the human population to resort to the simple rules of cattle breeding as set forth in the Kansas Farmer pamphlet, which include the elimination of infected individuals and the practice of eugenics to develop herd immunity in the population. 
     A year later, The Kansas City Star recommended more robust procedures;
     "To prevent dissemination of the infection the aborting cow should be isolated and the dead calf and membranes destroyed; the genitals of the cow should be flushed immediately after abortion; the bull should be allowed to serve only healthy cows; quarters should be disinfected, sanitary methods of feeding followed, and the proper sanitary surroundings provided." 
That same method for preservation of the stock was recommended for other farm animals inflicted with other types of contagious disease, such as hogs. The Star article noted that those stockmen interested in preserving their herds should contact Doctor Potter at the state agricultural college. In his column "Livestock Questions Answered," published in The Oregon Daily Journal, Dr. M. Howes, Veterinarian, offered similar advice;
     "The prevention of infection to your herd can be made possible by the refusal to breed outside cows to your bull, and the raising of your own young animals so as not to admit any new animals to your herd. This is called herd immunity." 
By 1925, Dr. I. Forest Huddleston after four years of work at the Michigan Agricultural College,  developed a vaccine "living culture" that prevented the transmission of brucellosis, as reported in the Lexington Kentucky Leader. There was no question as to what caused the disease to spread, its remedy was clouded in how to go about preventing it. 
     With respect to the current pandemic in the human population, mitigation measures certainly have not reached the extreme to send the infected individuals to "the block" and there also doesn't seem to be any desire to breed with only "pure-bred sires." The very suggestion of the latter would bring on violent cultural repercussions and resistance. Curiously, Dr. Anthony Fauci, when interviewed by Dana Bash on CNN's  "State of the Union" yesterday, might have accidentally suggested exactly that;

    (07:13)  BASH: No sugar-coating, ... you're saying 75-80 percent is the goal (for herd immunity)...when is that supposed to happen?"
                 FAUCI: Well if you look at the logistics of it, Dana, we're going through the priority groups we started with...(mentions others such as front line workers and underlying condition patients)..."

     Fauci then mentions "essential people in society." (07:50) The immunologist then sugar-coats over just who these so-called "essential people" are, but from what was discovered above in the infected cattle, it certainly isn't the foreigners bought and sold at the auctions. It brings into question just who decides who these elite, gifted, immune people are with special privileges over the infected herd. In fact, what has been noted recently, many of these so-called essentials are indeed the ones breaking the rules and getting the virus. Fauci then refers  to the general population vaccine effort as "open season."
Possibly by accident alone, Dr. Fauci finds himself cornered by the very semantics he needs to avoid to prevent falling into the eugenics trap waiting somewhere down the graph if the vaccines fail to curtail.  

CNN's Dana Bash interviews Dr. Anthony Fauci on Herd Immunity

The immunologist discusses the variable factor in herd immunity as related to mitigation and vaccination

Cited:
Kansas Farmer, 26 October 1918, Page 4.
The Kansas City Star, 30 April 1919, Page 15. 
The Oregon Daily Journal, 10 April 1920, Page 6.
Lexington Leader, 18 February 1925, Page 9.
ATTN: IMMEDREL//CD@TCNET/VIA/JC/EOC//UNCLSF//TTYP
Posted by at

Sunday, December 27, 2020

COVID19, DIVISION N--Relief Bill: Extracted, Indexed & E-PUBBED

IMMEDREL//ATTN/CD@TCNET//VIA/JCL/EOC//URGENT//
     The following 500 page plus document has been extracted from the Appropriations Bill under "Division N" and is the coronavirus legislation in e-pub format, indexed.




..


Index--

TITLE I—HEALTHCARE--2

TITLE II--ASSISTANCE TO INDIVIDUALS, FAMILIES AND BUSINESSES -- 5
Subtitle A—Unemployment Insurance - 5
Subtitle B-- COVID-related Tax Relief Act of 2020--   43

TITLE III—CONTINUING THE  PAYCHECK PROTECTION  PROGRAM AND OTHER SMALL  BUSINESS SUPPORT-- 120

TITLE IV—TRANSPORTATION--286
Subtitle A—Airline Worker Support Extension
Subtitle B—Coronavirus Economic Relief for Transportation Services Act --311
Subtitle C—Motor Carrier Safety Grant Relief Act of 2020--330
Subtitle D—Extension of Waiver Authority--333

TITLE V—BANKING--  333
Subtitle A—Emergency Rental Assistance--333
Subtitle B—Community Development Investment   -- 359
Subtitle C—Miscellaneous --  389

TITLE VI—LABOR PROVISIONS -- 393

TITLE VII—NUTRITION AND AGRICULTURE RELIEF -- 395
Subtitle A—Nutrition  -- 395
Subtitle B—Agriculture  -- 430

TITLE VIII—UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE -- 467

TITLE IX—BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS SERVICE  --  468

TITLE X—MISCELLANEOUS -- 537




IMMEDREL//ATTN/CD@TCNET//VIA/JCL/EOC//URGENT//

Posted by at

Friday, December 25, 2020

COVID19, CALIFORNIA--Los Angeles Hospital Regions--EAST, SOUTH, METRO, ETC


Hospitals on this map are the ones reporting the stats for the county by various regions defined below--



.. Breakdown by LA County Hospital Regions-- http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1081882_HospitalCOVIDAssessment2020-12.pdf

Antelope Valley-Newhall (AV)    (7-9) --3 hospitals
San Fernando Valley (SF)  (10-12)  -- 16 hospitals
San Gabriel Valley (SG)  (13-15) --  13 hospitals
East Region   (16-18)  --  8 hospitals
Metro Region (19-21)  -- 11 hospitals
West Region  (22-24)  --  6 hospitals
South Region  (25-27)  -- 13 hospitals

Workbook--
https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19HospitalsDashboard/Hospitals?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no


Posted by at

COVID19, LOS ANGELES---The USC Surveys Analyzed--MOTIVE, INTENT, MITIGATION

IMMEDREL//ATTN//JCL@NYU/UNRCMPS//VIA/TTYP/UNCLSF

     Incline Village, NV (CBD)--Tuesday's article in Deadline by Tom Tap references the University of Southern California's extensive polls taken that relate to a variety of parameters with respect to the coronavirus outbreak. Some of the graphs available at Dornsife, USC are directly related to the medical aspects of the virus while others concern the social aspects. The Deadline article refers specifically to the social aspect and headlines with "L.A. Residents are Defying Stay-at-Home Order;


     "30% of the respondents to a recent survey indicated they had visited a friend, neighbor or relative or had visitors at their residence."
The reporter extrapolated that out to mean that 3 million of the L.A. residents are "not following the safety guidance." That is as close as Tap gets to taking a close look at the data presented at Dornsife, the rest of the Deadline article rehashes known information. There is also no link at the article to follow up on the story so that a clear understanding of the motive, intent and other aspects of the survey respondents can be examined to verify a link between mitigation (social activity) and surge (confirmed cases). Tap alludes to it in the remaining paragraphs of the article but fails to make a connection. In fact, it draws into question as to whether the surveys themselves are useful in even establishing a link. 
     As mentioned, graphs from the surveys are divided into a number of categories: some medical, such as symptoms, risk and mental health, while others detail the social aspects such as discrimination, housing and the labor market. Tap used the stats-graphs under the category "Protective Social and Health Behaviors;" in particular three graphs that show results for those who visited a grocery store, a friends residence, a bar, or who had friend's visit. Graph Two of that series also shows the early stay-at-home 80 percent in April down to just under 40 percent prior to Christmas week, a drop by one-half. Graph Three of the series shows a near parallel at the 80 percent line between hiking and close contact with "coresidents." All of it indicates a possible connection between mitigation and surge, but it still cannot be verified. The low bar on the graph shows that at least some of the mitigation measures are being observed, such as "shared items like towels or utensils with others." Mitigation, thus, is an a-weighted system where some of the requirements are being met, but others are not. 
     It might also be noted that Tap's headline does little to address the spectrum of mitigation measures, which are strong and which are weak; the reporter uses a sensational headline with the buzzword that L.A. residents are "defying" stay-at-home. Adding to that is any disclaimer by the USC team that its material evidence at Dornsife might be misinterpreted by the media for the purpose of readership. Dornsife also offers readers the opportunity to submit their own series of questions for a survey.
     What's missing from all of the data, in spite of the fact it can be filtered by age, gender, income, race and education, is the motive, the intent of the survey respondents. For instance, under that same category from above, three survey questions showed washing hands to be the foremost mitigation measure at 95 and above percent approval, wearing protective face covering at just under 90 percent, and included on the graph, praying, at a dismal 70 percent compared to the others. The graph doesn't indicate whether the respondents actually used any or all of the two high-value measures, with praying being far more sophisticated in response. In fact, that very issue is being contested in court surrounding the indoor worship ban which has been overturned in court, as reported by Kristina Bravo and Sara Welch at KTLA;
     " 'No matter what a Superior Court judge says and given what’s happening now, it is simply too risky to gather indoors with other people who do not live with you,' the L.A. County Department of Public Health said in a statement." 
     From all of the above, it is apparent that a breakdown of civil authority might suggest the rather nonchalant attitude the general public has for the mitigation measures; that includes infighting between local governments in L.A. county, with reports the authorities will not enforce the mandates. Combined with the dispute between the courts and the houses of worship, there appears to be no direction at all in the strategy. All of that might be reflected in the survey responses as there is only the so-called "margin of error" to indicate what might be considered the truth in the stats. Added to that are the rather superficial variables of age, gender, race etc. to show the more meaningful, hidden psychological mechanisms as motive and intent with regard to response.
     It is probably unfair to characterize the general public as defiant in the face of an existential threat, it is human nature to spit in the eye of the devil. With all the talk of non-existent "herd immunity," why should it be a stretch of the imagination that people not just have a lack of understanding of that very threat, but also have a contempt for it as well? Human spirit and determination cannot be rated in statistics, no matter how a-weighted, extrapolated or logarithmically scaled. None of the USC findings show the resolve of the people to overcome the obstacle. 


      The depletion of the national strategic stockpile has been eradicated, basic consumer goods are beginning to reappear on the shelves, the FDA has approved several pharmaceutical companies for vaccines to be administered. In spite of all of the positive turns, the casualty count continues to climb dramatically with health officials factoring in the holiday superspreader coefficient. Lacking in all of the signs of recovery is the one of patience, all around. It is the one key ingredient that will alter the course of the fight against the most insidious virus that has gripped the nation since the AIDS scare of the last century. Suggestions for USC surveys might include that along with questions of intent, motivation, confidence in public officials, self-control and restraint from taboo activities. 
     In the words of 60s icon Jim Morrison of The Doors, "No one here gets out alive," perhaps some of us will.


Marco Rubio Rails Against Fauci, says he "lied about masks," and distorted "herd immunity"

"Dr. Fauci lied about masks in March. Dr. Fauci has been distorting the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity," Rubio wrote. "It isn't just him. Many in elite bubbles believe the American public doesn't know 'what's good for them' so they need to be tricked into 'doing the right thing.'"

Dr. Fauci defends the herd immunity estimate--
IMMEDREL//ATTN//JCL@NYU/UNRCMPS//VIA/TTYP/UNCLSF
Posted by at
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)