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Monday, December 28, 2020

COVID19--Herd Immunity, Stochastic Threshold--FAUCI & MEASLES DYNAMICS

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     "What's not being addressed...is the rate of decline in the population..."


       Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Net)--Appearing on CNN's State of the Union yesterday hosted by Dana Bash, foremost immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci was forced to respond to his wildly gyrating projections on the concept of "herd immunity." Fauci used known statistics related to the measles in order to make his estimate, which was any where from 75-80 percent on the lower end of the spectrum, to 90-95 percent on the higher end. In addition, asked "when" all of the vaccines would be administered to achieve at least the mid-range, Fauci reported not until the end of Summer, 2021. Called out on the fact that stats were slow to show just how many shots had been given, the immunologist stated there is always some reporting confusion when a n ew vaccine is administered. Even then, the entire concept of "herd immunity" appears to be based on what he referred to its relationship to another highly infectious respiratory illness, the measles. A review of primary sources regarding measles and herd immunity produces quite a different story.   


     In 1971, the question of the effectiveness of a vaccine against a disease was questioned by Dr. John M. Leedom of the USC School of Medicine in an article published by Robert Cooke in the Town Talk (Alexandria, Louisiana);
     "Furthermore, Leedom says, vaccinating a great number of persons doesn't appear to produce a desired effect, an effect called herd immunity. 'We used to think that if we hit a magic percentage figure an epidemic couldn't be sustained...Yet some studies with different populations show that immunity rates as high as 80 per cent aren't enough to protect the rest of the population. We found that rubella (German measles) epidemics proceed until 100 per cent of the susceptible persons have been infected.' " 
Leedom also noted in the article that even though the vaccine was effective in those inoculated, a "weak " form of the virus was still passed on to those in close proximity. By contrast, a decade before that, the new polio vaccines didn't guarantee a slowdown or eradication of the highly contagious disease, as reported in 1961 by the Fort Collins Coloradoan;
     "For polio vaccination does not confer so-called 'herd' immunity. Vaccination of a fair number of individuals in the population does not suppress the disease." 
That report filed by the Colorado Medical Society. Still other reports from the early 60s indicated that at least one type of oral vaccine would create herd immunity in those who received no inoculation at all, so the matter could only be settled in the overall statistics. Dr. H.H. Williams, Dayton City Health commissioner, had this to say in 1963 regarding polio vaccination;
     "WHEN THE immunization rate gets so high in the herd, the disease does not spread."
Still, that seems to be more wishful thinking than proven scientific fact. Doctors, immunologists and developers of truth serum that offer elixir remedies can never be sure of the outcome until the actual doses are administered. Even then, strains of the original virus appear in the course of mass inoculation that might bypass the cure. All of this is ignored in the face of the spread of the contagion, replaced by some magical percentage that will eradicate the epidemic. That brings up yet another point that hasn't been addressed.
      The nation has watched throughout the course of 2020 the spike in coronavirus cases and the number of deaths that resulted. Several graphs show and compare confirmed-suspected cases, hospitalized and ICU committed cases, and the casualty count itself. The graphs are impressive, exponential, by nature, some taking into account weighted coefficients; that's about as far as it goes.
Dr. Fauci, in his SOTU interview with Dana Bash, gave only estimates to the percentages projected to achioeve the mythical herd immunity that will rescue the population from the "scourge;"

     (02:48) FAUCI: "It's a guesstimate, I gave a range..."
     (03:57) FAUCI: "I think we're going to get there, end of March, beginning of April..."
     (04:05) FAUCI: "It's probably going to take several months..."

What's not being addressed in the interview is the rate of decline in the population. Will that be according to some logarithmic decay equation in much the same way the surge was plotted, or will it be a slow, gradual, almost linear reduction in the road to recovery? Will the pandemic disappear as fast as it appeared? 


     The answer to that would be in the measles modelling at JSTOR by Bjornstad, Finkelstadt and Grenfell, "The cycles are driven by a rapid (initially roughly exponential) depletion of susceptible hosts," which has already occurred. The authors then establish a stochastic disease model. Several of the plots are innovative and beyond the standard time plotted exponential graphs used currently to reflect infections; one of which is infected versus available population. This particular graph plot might indicate just how far the virus can reach out into the population before an overall un-inoculated herd immunity could possibly take effect. Although the x-axis on the graph indicates a "Susceptible population," that doesn't mean everyone who comes into contact with the virus will get sick. On the y-axis, "Infected population" also does not show that everyone exposed to the virus will get sick, merely exposed. 



     In yet another model, a number of variables are taken into account that would have an effect on the growth rate of the virus in the community, such as number of "immigrants," the growth rate, community size, and proportion infected. That may explain why, in all of the California purple tier regions, the one that hasn't really dropped below the 15 per cent ICU occupancy level, has been in the far north above Sacramento. 
     The measles epidemic dynamics are worth noting, but to a greater degree in what has been presented by health officials. Two things still remain vague with relation to herd immunity and mass inoculation, not made clear by Dr. Fauci. The first is where to predict to peak in the graph, which may be considered a stochastic, random model since it's upward turn post-Thanksgiving. The second is the downturn dynamics of the pandemic as vaccinations increase, the nature of the slope of the graph, and not just related to time.
     The vaccine driven decrease of infection rate in a population can be found in the Bioscience Journal article by Dobson and Carper, Infectious Diseases and Human Population History;
     "One of the major additional effects is the reduction of infected individuals in the population due to the reduced number of contacts that infected individuals have with susceptible individuals. The effect is called herd immunity. As the percentage of the population that is immunized increases, there are linear decreases in the total incidences of the disease in the population  and increasingly rapid decreases amongst the proportion of individuals not vaccinated."  (Dobson, Carper, 124)
The rapidly accelerating graph as the pandemic sweeps across the population may well not be mirrored as the disease wanes in proportion to vaccination and the in-place existing mitigation measures. Thus, as the pandemic appeared overnight, it may take months, possibly years, for it to be completely eradicated even with 100 percent herd immunity.

LA County To Require 10-Day Quarantine For Travelers

“Because of the likelihood of exposure to COVID-19 while traveling outside of L.A County, for everyone that traveled or are planning to travel back into L.A. County, you must quarantine for 10 days,” the department said in a news release.
In fact, the exact opposite is true. The virus thrives where the population is dense as it has a large selection of susceptible individuals to infect. Someone travelling outside of the county, to a remote area where the rate is lower, as in Northern California, has a greater chance of contaminating that region and should be quarantined there upon arrival.
Cited
Cooke, R., Town Talk, 29 September 1971, Page 30.
The Fort Collins Coloradoan, 11 May 1961, Page 13
Dayton Daily News, 13 January 1963, Page 21.

Bjørnstad, Ottar N., et al. “Dynamics of Measles Epidemics: Estimating Scaling of Transmission Rates Using a Time Series SIR Model.” Ecological Monographs, vol. 72, no. 2, 2002, pp. 169–184. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/3100023. Accessed 28 Dec. 2020.

Dobson, Andrew P., and E. Robin Carper. “Infectious Diseases and Human Population History.” BioScience, vol. 46, no. 2, 1996, pp. 115–126. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/1312814. Accessed 29 Dec. 2020.



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COVID19--"Herd Immunity" Origin--CATTLE, EUGENICS & FAUCI

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                  "No sugar coating, you're saying 75-80 percent is the goal...," Dana Bash, CNN          

     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Net)--   At the turn of the last century, the cattle industry was inflicted with brucellosis, also known by its more common name of "contagious abortion," as reported in the Kansas Farmer;    
     "6. Abortion disease can be controlled by proper methods of herd management. Control is dependent on three fundamental principles: (1) Preventing the spread of infection. (2) Developing herd immunity. (3) Treating affected animals to promote recovery and preserve the reproductive function." 


     The pamphlet notes that the original method of containing brucellosis was to send all of the stock to the block. That thinking gradually evolved to keeping the healthy cattle that produced healthy offspring as they appeared to be immune to the disease;
     "The vigorous heifer calves which reach maturity in spite of the disease are naturally from the more resistant cows and they seem to inherit this tolerance."
It suggested that "Herd improvement can also be secured through the use of pure-bred sires."  
The pamphlet recommends not introducing new breeding cows into the herd, infection persisted where cows were constantly bought and sold. The proper course of action was based directly on;
     "Herd immunity is developed, therefore, by retaining the immune cows, raising the calves, and avoiding the introduction of foreign cattle."
It is a terrifying thought that in the future, if not with coronavirus, the next more resilient strain of a deadly virus might well force the human population to resort to the simple rules of cattle breeding as set forth in the Kansas Farmer pamphlet, which include the elimination of infected individuals and the practice of eugenics to develop herd immunity in the population. 
     A year later, The Kansas City Star recommended more robust procedures;
     "To prevent dissemination of the infection the aborting cow should be isolated and the dead calf and membranes destroyed; the genitals of the cow should be flushed immediately after abortion; the bull should be allowed to serve only healthy cows; quarters should be disinfected, sanitary methods of feeding followed, and the proper sanitary surroundings provided." 
That same method for preservation of the stock was recommended for other farm animals inflicted with other types of contagious disease, such as hogs. The Star article noted that those stockmen interested in preserving their herds should contact Doctor Potter at the state agricultural college. In his column "Livestock Questions Answered," published in The Oregon Daily Journal, Dr. M. Howes, Veterinarian, offered similar advice;
     "The prevention of infection to your herd can be made possible by the refusal to breed outside cows to your bull, and the raising of your own young animals so as not to admit any new animals to your herd. This is called herd immunity." 
By 1925, Dr. I. Forest Huddleston after four years of work at the Michigan Agricultural College,  developed a vaccine "living culture" that prevented the transmission of brucellosis, as reported in the Lexington Kentucky Leader. There was no question as to what caused the disease to spread, its remedy was clouded in how to go about preventing it. 
     With respect to the current pandemic in the human population, mitigation measures certainly have not reached the extreme to send the infected individuals to "the block" and there also doesn't seem to be any desire to breed with only "pure-bred sires." The very suggestion of the latter would bring on violent cultural repercussions and resistance. Curiously, Dr. Anthony Fauci, when interviewed by Dana Bash on CNN's  "State of the Union" yesterday, might have accidentally suggested exactly that;

    (07:13)  BASH: No sugar-coating, ... you're saying 75-80 percent is the goal (for herd immunity)...when is that supposed to happen?"
                 FAUCI: Well if you look at the logistics of it, Dana, we're going through the priority groups we started with...(mentions others such as front line workers and underlying condition patients)..."

     Fauci then mentions "essential people in society." (07:50) The immunologist then sugar-coats over just who these so-called "essential people" are, but from what was discovered above in the infected cattle, it certainly isn't the foreigners bought and sold at the auctions. It brings into question just who decides who these elite, gifted, immune people are with special privileges over the infected herd. In fact, what has been noted recently, many of these so-called essentials are indeed the ones breaking the rules and getting the virus. Fauci then refers  to the general population vaccine effort as "open season."
Possibly by accident alone, Dr. Fauci finds himself cornered by the very semantics he needs to avoid to prevent falling into the eugenics trap waiting somewhere down the graph if the vaccines fail to curtail.  

CNN's Dana Bash interviews Dr. Anthony Fauci on Herd Immunity

The immunologist discusses the variable factor in herd immunity as related to mitigation and vaccination

Cited:
Kansas Farmer, 26 October 1918, Page 4.
The Kansas City Star, 30 April 1919, Page 15. 
The Oregon Daily Journal, 10 April 1920, Page 6.
Lexington Leader, 18 February 1925, Page 9.
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