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Saturday, January 9, 2021

INSURRECTION-- Incitement, Sedition, Common Law--DEMAGOGUERY & CLASS WARFARE

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     "Sedition:  "to raise discontent or disaffection amongst His Majesty’s subjects..."

     Incline Village, Nev. (EoC Syndicated)-- The first draft of the second impeachment effort by the US House of Representatives is now available online (H.Res No #) and the single article  is titled "Incitement of Insurrection." The second part of the title is a no-brainer, it's the first that draws scrutiny. The text of the article attempts to  provide a better definition;
     "Incited by President Trump, a mob unlawfully breached the Capitol, injured law enforcement personnel, menaced Members of Congress and the Vice President, interfered with the Joint Session's solemn constitutional duty to certify the election results, and engaged in violent, deadly, destructive and seditious acts." 


     Skipping over most of the fluff regarding violent, deadly and destructive, the catchword in the indictment is "seditious." Jacob Jaconelli gives insightful analysis in his essay "Incitement: A Study in Language Crime;" He starts out by setting a parameter between language and speech, where the second can fall under freedom of. Jaconelli makes the case that language, not speech, is the force behind incitement and draws focus directly on encouragement with respect to incitement. In one of the more stark examples drawn by the author, Jaconelli cites what he calls "predicate conduct" with respect to sedition;
     "The classic definition of the crime stated that it was 'to incite any person to commit any crime in disturbance of the peace, or to raise discontent or disaffection amongst His Majesty’s subjects, or to promote feelings of ill-will and hostility between different classes of such subjects.' "
Although Jaconelli follows up with respect to seditious behavior rooted in racial and religious hatred, His Majesty might disagree, basing the crime on class distinction. So what role did that very class distinction play in the riot at the Capitol on Wednesday, January 6, 2021? We might look at Patricia Roberts-Miller and her definitions of a demagogue in  "Demagoguery and Democracy;"
     "polarizes a complicated situation into us and them,...the world can be reduced to those who are with us and those who are against us,...the Truth is easy to perceive and convey,...appeal to inconsistent premises, and argument from personal conviction," and the in-group is faced with extermination, or worse.


     Most of the horse and buggy thinking right now falls into Roberts-Miller's descriptions of the old parameters of demagoguery such as leader charisma, is the person bad, appealing to populist notions and manipulative. Certainly from an incitement point of view with regard to sedition, those parameters may be sufficient, but are not accurate. With respect to what Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas)  called the "Day of Infamy" on CNN's Pamela Brown segment tonight,  a closer look reveals the hidden agenda following more closely what His Majesty feared of his subjects way back during the days of common law. Much of it might also be corroborated by Roberts-Miller's further extrapolations, such as underpinning the common fallacies of the demagogue. 
     Circular reasoning and tautology create the impression that the rhetor can be trusted by the parameter of personal conviction, "trust me." Even though, for instance, the resolution for impeachment includes the allegation that the President attempted to influence the outcome of the Georgia votes in the general election, it is not enough to satisfy yet another component of the innovative demagoguery definition. That can be found elsewhere, in an unlikely spot, with regard to the pandemic statistics;
     "Naïve realists often believe that they can judge the validity of statistics on the basis of whether they support a conclusion they believe to be obviously true, so they accept as true those statistics with which they agree and dismiss as untrue those statistics with which they disagree." (Roberts-Miller)
As recently as a week ago, Jemima McEvoy reported in Forbes the President's efforts to misalign the CDC stats downward in order to make his administration appear we are coming out of the crisis; 
      "Trump suggested that the U.S. Covid-19 death toll includes deaths that weren’t caused by the virus, providing no evidence for either claim. " (Forbes)
Not just fitting the profile of the new demagogue definition, the hidden agenda is that of the class-struggle between those who have lost their jobs, business, homes and family members because of the pandemic, but those who have not, the political elite that has been foot dragging in key areas such as unemployment relief and stimulus checks. The blame fell squarely on the House of Representatives for its weak $600 package when the White House demanded $2000. To complicate the matter, infighting inside the president's own party further stalled economic relief for the struggling classes. No longer defined by an oversimplified "they stole the election" outcry, Roberts-Miller's scare tactics used by the loser that some apocalyptic event will happen if the protesters don't storm the capitol and halt at any cost the electoral college count results. All of it was fueled by class distinction, indeed a relevant argument for the "seditious acts" phrase written into the impeachment article. 
     "Shortly before the Joint Session commenced, President Trump addressed a crowd of his political supporters nearby. There he reiterated false claims that 'we won this election, and we won it by a landslide,.' " (Article I)
And now, the upper crust lawmakers in the House chamber are going to give it away, rob the poor, the unemployed and the bankrupt in the mob. By His Majesty's definition, the President willfully and carefully plotted the seditious act for which he is now accused; rhetoric aside, syntax and semantics to the wind. Sedition, a high crime, not a misdemeanor, by common law from the days of royalty, pegged to class struggle. Following the speech to incite insurrection, the President left the scene, with his entourage of wealthy sycophants and family insiders, also onstage briefly to incite the mob. Certainly they must have sensed the outcome even before it happened, with cellphone videos of them dancing and carrying on, behavior that can only be attributed to those so incredibly rich to be completely out of touch with the monster they had just created and unleashed, in utter contempt of the working class they incited. Yet to be examined are the Marxian and Freudian analyses of this aberration of democracy.
     As the pundits and former chiefs of  staff repeat the story a dozen times on CNN for the past few days leading up to Monday's House vote, they get the reasons all wrong, they have been out of college too long. The definitions have changed, they see it all through a naïve realism of their own that what counts in a court of opinion on television also counts in a court of law. And at least Dana Bash of CNN noted today, a senate trial is no court of law.
Here's what the DC US Attorney, Michael Sherwin, had to say; 

 "I don't want this tyranny of labels saying this was sedition, this was a coup," Sherwin says. "But what I will say is, it was criminal." 

reported by Martin Kaste for NPR, 
Cited:
Roberts-Miller, Patricia, Demagoguery and Democracy, The Experiment, NY, 2020 paperback.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020

HERDIMMUNITY--Population-Driven Transmission Model & --COVID-19 SUSTAINABILITY THRESHOLD

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     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Syndicated)--While some in the professional medical field are busy blaming the federal government for failure in its effort to halt the spread of coronavirus, most are actually working tirelessly out in the field making every effort to do just that. The purpose of the criticism serves no purpose at all, in fact, the parameters required for a viral outbreak to become an epidemic have no relation at all to government intervention, or lack thereof. Dobson and Carper have noted in BioScience journal, in the published article, "Infectious Diseases and Human Population History," the root cause is the size of the population;


     "Epidemiological theory suggests that host population is critical in determining whether a pathogen can become established and remain endemic in a population." (Dobson, Carper, 116)
Epidemiology is the study of outbreaks, endemic means restricted to a region. What's clear from the statement is that the more susceptible hosts available, the more likely the virus will take hold. It is known as the Threshold for Disease Establishment (H, subscript "t"). The low end is 500,000 with an estimate of 700,000 for measles. Anywhere the population exceeds the threshold, the probability of an epidemic is high from a sheer mathematical standpoint. H(t) is based on the ratio of infection R(0) which can be greater or less than zero (0), and determines whether the infections are increasing or decreasing. As for the use of vaccinations to control and eradicate a pathogen, the study cites the concept of "herd immunity," original terminology to control disease in cattle. Noted is that as more of the population is inoculated, the infected persons have limited contact with those susceptible, but adds;
     "As the percentage of the population that is immunized increases, there are linear decreases in the total incidence of the disease in the population and increasingly rapid decreases in amongst the proportion of individuals not vaccinated." (124)
That linear, or rapid, decrease is the gradual recession of the virus in the population over time. According to an article in The Sheboygan Press with respect to inoculation by the Salk vaccine against polio in 1957;
     "The polio rate fell dramatically in 1956--from a peak of 57,879 cases in  1952 and 29,983 in 1955 to 'only' 15,128 lats (sp) year." (Sheboygan Press, 2)
This is an indicator of one of the first inoculation programs and its case rate decrease, which was not linear, but also not exponential, best described as a "half-life." The coronavirus epidemic began in China in 2019, thus labeled "COVID-19." It spread rapidly across the United States in 2020, with the initial flareups along the West coast in California and Washington, where the population could sustain the spread. By the end of the year, the epidemic had become an endemic pandemic. In December, the first wave of vaccine rollouts was distributed with the same unpredictable reactions as found in those of the Salk vaccine and the temporal shortfall of the killed live-virus types for measles inoculations. Today, ground-zero of the resilience of the pathogen can be found in one of the largest population centers in the United States, Los Angeles. 
     Current distribution of the available vaccines is ongoing, but across the board throughout the health departments nationwide. That is not, according to the Dobson-Carper model regarding population-driven transmission of the virus, the ideal procedure. The best approach would be to focus on Los Angeles itself, inoculate the entire city, surrounding counties and restrict incoming individual traffic. Forget the ideal, much-debated (NY Times, CNN) "herd-immunity" percentage and break the transmission ratio, drive it into negative territory. That would be the ultimate test of the population-driven transmission model. Available statistics reveal the highest transmission component, by age, gender, ethnic origin, and those would be the first wave target inoculations; not necessarily front line workers or society "essentials." Vaccinating the Vice-President was all for show with little practical application as he is isolated, quarantined enough, to be neither a transmitter nor a host. Statistics also reveal the highest susceptible hosts in the population. 

As Hospitals Roll Out COVID-19 Vaccines, Health Care Workers Describe Chaos And Anger

Health care workers across the country have started receiving COVID-19 vaccines, but doctors and nurses at some of the nation's top hospitals are raising the alarm, charging that vaccine distribution has been unfair and a chaotic "free-for-all."
     The unknown factor is how long the eradication of coronavirus will take, not just in the United States, but globally. Aside from new hysteria created in the media over more virulent strains of the virus compounding the difficulty in success of the base model vaccine, the prospect of serum combination into a cure-all elixir to limit all strains is just not possible for the time being. Dr. Fauci noted the rollout is lagging but expects it to reach desirable levels by April, 2021. He added that effective herd immunity ranges could be achieved by the end of next summer. (CNN, State of the Union) For the United States, with its penchant in the media and disgruntled, overwhelmed medical professionals for defeatism, that may not be good enough, but it will have to do. 
Cited
Dobson, Andrew P., and E. Robin Carper. “Infectious Diseases and Human Population History.” BioScience, vol. 46, no. 2, 1996, pp. 115–126. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/1312814. Accessed 29 Dec. 2020.
Dr. Salk Still Trying To Improve Vaccine, The Sheboygan Press, 30 March 1957, Page 2.
     
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