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Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Syndicated)--While some in the professional medical field are busy blaming the federal government for failure in its effort to halt the spread of coronavirus, most are actually working tirelessly out in the field making every effort to do just that. The purpose of the criticism serves no purpose at all, in fact, the parameters required for a viral outbreak to become an epidemic have no relation at all to government intervention, or lack thereof. Dobson and Carper have noted in BioScience journal, in the published article, "Infectious Diseases and Human Population History," the root cause is the size of the population;
"Epidemiological theory suggests that host population is critical in determining whether a pathogen can become established and remain endemic in a population." (Dobson, Carper, 116)
Epidemiology is the study of outbreaks, endemic means restricted to a region. What's clear from the statement is that the more susceptible hosts available, the more likely the virus will take hold. It is known as the Threshold for Disease Establishment (H, subscript "t"). The low end is 500,000 with an estimate of 700,000 for measles. Anywhere the population exceeds the threshold, the probability of an epidemic is high from a sheer mathematical standpoint. H(t) is based on the ratio of infection R(0) which can be greater or less than zero (0), and determines whether the infections are increasing or decreasing. As for the use of vaccinations to control and eradicate a pathogen, the study cites the concept of "herd immunity," original terminology to control disease in cattle. Noted is that as more of the population is inoculated, the infected persons have limited contact with those susceptible, but adds;
"As the percentage of the population that is immunized increases, there are linear decreases in the total incidence of the disease in the population and increasingly rapid decreases in amongst the proportion of individuals not vaccinated." (124)
That linear, or rapid, decrease is the gradual recession of the virus in the population over time. According to an article in The Sheboygan Press with respect to inoculation by the Salk vaccine against polio in 1957;
"The polio rate fell dramatically in 1956--from a peak of 57,879 cases in 1952 and 29,983 in 1955 to 'only' 15,128 lats (sp) year." (Sheboygan Press, 2)
This is an indicator of one of the first inoculation programs and its case rate decrease, which was not linear, but also not exponential, best described as a "half-life." The coronavirus epidemic began in China in 2019, thus labeled "COVID-19." It spread rapidly across the United States in 2020, with the initial flareups along the West coast in California and Washington, where the population could sustain the spread. By the end of the year, the epidemic had become an endemic pandemic. In December, the first wave of vaccine rollouts was distributed with the same unpredictable reactions as found in those of the Salk vaccine and the temporal shortfall of the killed live-virus types for measles inoculations. Today, ground-zero of the resilience of the pathogen can be found in one of the largest population centers in the United States, Los Angeles.
Current distribution of the available vaccines is ongoing, but across the board throughout the health departments nationwide. That is not, according to the Dobson-Carper model regarding population-driven transmission of the virus, the ideal procedure. The best approach would be to focus on Los Angeles itself, inoculate the entire city, surrounding counties and restrict incoming individual traffic. Forget the ideal, much-debated (NY Times, CNN) "herd-immunity" percentage and break the transmission ratio, drive it into negative territory. That would be the ultimate test of the population-driven transmission model. Available statistics reveal the highest transmission component, by age, gender, ethnic origin, and those would be the first wave target inoculations; not necessarily front line workers or society "essentials." Vaccinating the Vice-President was all for show with little practical application as he is isolated, quarantined enough, to be neither a transmitter nor a host. Statistics also reveal the highest susceptible hosts in the population.
As Hospitals Roll Out COVID-19 Vaccines, Health Care Workers Describe Chaos And Anger
Health care workers across the country have started receiving COVID-19 vaccines, but doctors and nurses at some of the nation's top hospitals are raising the alarm, charging that vaccine distribution has been unfair and a chaotic "free-for-all."
The unknown factor is how long the eradication of coronavirus will take, not just in the United States, but globally. Aside from new hysteria created in the media over more virulent strains of the virus compounding the difficulty in success of the base model vaccine, the prospect of serum combination into a cure-all elixir to limit all strains is just not possible for the time being. Dr. Fauci noted the rollout is lagging but expects it to reach desirable levels by April, 2021. He added that effective herd immunity ranges could be achieved by the end of next summer. (CNN, State of the Union) For the United States, with its penchant in the media and disgruntled, overwhelmed medical professionals for defeatism, that may not be good enough, but it will have to do.
Cited
Dobson, Andrew P., and E. Robin Carper. “Infectious Diseases and Human Population History.” BioScience, vol. 46, no. 2, 1996, pp. 115–126. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/1312814. Accessed 29 Dec. 2020.
Dr. Salk Still Trying To Improve Vaccine, The Sheboygan Press, 30 March 1957, Page 2.
Dr. Fauci, Vaccine Rollout, https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/12/27/fauci-coronavirus-herd-immunity-range-estimate-shift-intv-sotu-vpx.cnn
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