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Tuesday, April 7, 2020

COVID19 USA--- Mitigation Downsizing Strategy--OUT OF LEFT FIELD


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 "Out of left field" is American slang meaning "unexpected", "odd" or "strange". 

     ATLANTA: (Today)-- Director Downplays the Attrition Rate: Today, the CDC chief  called for lower numbers across the board for  mortalities related to the deadly virus that has America in its grip, as reported on ABC News;


 " 'If we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline. And I think that's what you're seeing,' said Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control.
'I think you're going to see the numbers are, in fact, going to be much less than what would have been predicted by the models,' he said. " (ABC)
The article mentions that the CDC has its own "internal" numbers, but they aren't given. Whatever they are, they appear to be, as Redfield stated, are "much, much, much" lower than the 100,000 to 240,000 currently projected by the White House Task Force.

WASHINGTON, DC (Last Week)--No Exit--A reporter at one of the White House daily briefings inquired about what to expect when things eventually get back to normal. The question was met with a nebulous response that didn't have any strategy at all. The reporter suggested that possibly some businesses would be taken off the "essential" list before others, but the response drew a blank from the podium.


     MAINLAND, CHINA (Yesterday)--Photos and videos circulating on the Weibo social media platform show packs of mask-wearing visitors crowding pathways and jostling for space at the Huangshan, or Yellow, Mountains in Anhui province Saturday and Sunday. (NY Post)

Huangshan was forced to shut down yesterday after its trails were swamped by more than 20,000 visitors.
It comes as the local government of Anhui Province in eastern China have offered free entry to 29 scenic spots, including Huangshan, to attract tourists. (Daily Mail)

The rush to end the national shelter-in-place order was apparently met with mob rule and it brings up the question on just how the US government, in coordination with the individual states, plan to gradually de-escalate the strict social distancing and shelter-in -place rules currently enforced stateside.

     No state thus far has lifted restrictions; all businesses remain shut that are not essential and there has yet to be any direction at all from the task force as to a plan to reverse the current rules. There isn't even an accurate term to describe the process whether it be un-mitigation or de-escalation.  FEMA's "National Mitigation Framework" plan of 2013 doesn't address the unprecedented virus attack on the population and is designed more for infrastructure response, in effect, obsolete.
     "Nurturing a risk-conscious culture enables community leaders to routinely and systematically evaluate a wide variety of threats and hazards and then prioritize strategies, resources, and efforts using a comprehensive approach. A risk-conscious culture involves providing clear, meaningful, consistent, accessible (including for people with LEP), and culturally appropriate or multidisciplinary messaging so that the whole community embraces mitigation and reduces its exposure and vulnerability to risk." (FEMA)

     "....from baseball terminology, referring to a play in which the ball is thrown from the area covered by the left fielder to either home plate or first base..."

     It's blueprint for disaster management doesn't list the CDC specifically but only the HHS. (21)
The CDC has published a pamphlet on its website titled Implementation of Mitigation Strategies for Communities with Local COVID-19 Transmission that includes three categories of risk action; "None to Minimal, Minimal to Moderate and Substantial." The pamphlet covers actions neeeded to be taken by families, schools, workplaces, churches and healthcare facilities. It doesn't address easing of the restrictions.


      Most of the mitigation strategy currently in place surrounds foreign air traffic, business shutdown, social-distancing and shelter-in-place. Before any of the those requirements for mitigation can be lifted, the casualty numbers have to soften up, which includes cases tested positive and mortality rates. A simple dropping off of hospital admissions might not be the best indicator since many who have yet to be tested are under an effective house arrest rule imposed by governors. That softening of the numbers is directly related also to containment, which is associated to control by vaccine. In the case of COVID-19, one is yet to be introduced. In addition, the White House quarrels daily with the press corps at the briefings over the use of malaria pills as a deterrence, a "Quack-in-Chief" placebo-based mentality that adds to the fog of war over containment.

     Part of the problem as well is that the task force is forced to focus on providing answers to mundane inquiries by the press reacting to briefings surrounding the casualty count and medicine-show cures such as the malaria pill. If anything, it allows the task force an opportunity to avoid addressing the un-mitigation plan, if one even exists. There are hints and suggestions of normalcy like allowing basketball and baseball seasons to commence.
      Mike Oz for Yahoo Sports has the latest box scores for "normalcy;"



     "The first thing anybody waiting for baseball to start has to accept is that there will be no 'normal.' We passed normal a couple weeks ago when the COVID-19 cases were piling up in places like New York, Louisiana and Florida. Normal isn’t happening. Not this year. In baseball circles, the biggest question is when we’ll see a 2020 Major League Baseball season. That is, if we’ll see one. The rest of the particulars are secondary — How many games? Fans or no fans? What will the postseason look like?" (Oz)

     Although the article offers a number of possibilities, most would agree it won't happen. In fact, what hasn't yet happened is who's up to bat at home plate. Passed several weeks ago, the stimulus plan is currently bogged down in crashing government websites and checks in the mail that haven't been delivered. Consider that as a blueprint indicator for an upcoming de-mitigation strategy where businesses may or may not open according to some easing off of the essential category. Either way, there's not even been a schedule drawn up.

THE PENTAGON  (07 April)--  Today's removal of the coronavirus stimulus IG is yet another example of the White House taking a step backward in the un-mitigation strategy, an unforced infield error as reported by Rebecca Kheel;
     "The move follows several steps Trump has taken to combat oversight of the bailout fund. After signing the relief package into law last month, the president issued a signing statement saying he would not allow the special inspector general for the relief program to report to Congress without his supervision."  (The Hill)

     Some methods currently being employed by essential businesses might give a clue as to un-mitigation. such as limiting the number of customers allowed in the store, restaurant or nightclub. Others, such as banks, have kept their lobbies closed but allowed access to their patrons via ATM machines and drive-up windows, this may well work for the fast-food chains impacted by the shutdown. Sports events on ESPN, for instance, might be forced to broadcast on a pay-per-view method in the same way professional boxing is limited to purchase of a virtual seat in the arena. Mike Oz may be correct that there isn't a normal anytime in the near future, but if athletes want a million dollar paycheck instead of a $1200 stimulus relief one, they had better call their agents.



Ex-Obama adviser Dr. Emanuel explains what it will take for America to 'return to full normalcy'

The U.S. reached a grim milestone on Monday, passing 10,000 coronavirus-related deaths, and according to a prominent physician, the nation won't move beyond the crisis without a vaccine. "We're not going to get rid of this, or be past it, or return to full normalcy until that vaccine is available," Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a former health policy adviser under President Barack Obama, told Yahoo Finance's " The Ticker " on Monday.




     Most of the cliches have already been introduced at the press briefings,  we are
"reaching an apex," "mitigation, mitigation, mitigation," "light at the end of the tunnel," "foot on the accelerator" and don't forget to "take your malaria pill" (a throwback to the Vietnam War days). What we have yet to see is the plan that everyone has waited longer for than their government handout checks, and that's when America will reopen for business.




Sources
Redfield, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-head-downplays-covid-19-models-says-deaths-will-be-much-lower-than-projected/ar-BB12fhcx?ocid=spartanntp
Huangshan, https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/tourists-mob-mountain-range-as-china-loosens-coronavirus-restrictions/
Photo, China, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191087/Thousands-Chinese-tourists-stuck-jam-packed-tourist-attraction-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html
Daily Mail, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191087/Thousands-Chinese-tourists-stuck-jam-packed-tourist-attraction-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html
FEMA, https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1914-25045-9956/final_national_mitigation_framework_20130501.pdf
CDC Mitigation, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community-mitigation-strategy.pdf
Oz, https://sports.yahoo.com/one-reason-why-a-quarantined-baseball-season-could-be-a-big-win-for-mlb-000852830.html
Left field image, bluestape.com
Glove Images, Cooperstown trading pins,
IG Replaced, https://thehill.com/policy/defense/491560-trump-replaces-pentagon-watchdog-removing-him-from-coronavirus-relief



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