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Friday, December 25, 2020

COVID19, LOS ANGELES---The USC Surveys Analyzed--MOTIVE, INTENT, MITIGATION

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     Incline Village, NV (CBD)--Tuesday's article in Deadline by Tom Tap references the University of Southern California's extensive polls taken that relate to a variety of parameters with respect to the coronavirus outbreak. Some of the graphs available at Dornsife, USC are directly related to the medical aspects of the virus while others concern the social aspects. The Deadline article refers specifically to the social aspect and headlines with "L.A. Residents are Defying Stay-at-Home Order;


     "30% of the respondents to a recent survey indicated they had visited a friend, neighbor or relative or had visitors at their residence."
The reporter extrapolated that out to mean that 3 million of the L.A. residents are "not following the safety guidance." That is as close as Tap gets to taking a close look at the data presented at Dornsife, the rest of the Deadline article rehashes known information. There is also no link at the article to follow up on the story so that a clear understanding of the motive, intent and other aspects of the survey respondents can be examined to verify a link between mitigation (social activity) and surge (confirmed cases). Tap alludes to it in the remaining paragraphs of the article but fails to make a connection. In fact, it draws into question as to whether the surveys themselves are useful in even establishing a link. 
     As mentioned, graphs from the surveys are divided into a number of categories: some medical, such as symptoms, risk and mental health, while others detail the social aspects such as discrimination, housing and the labor market. Tap used the stats-graphs under the category "Protective Social and Health Behaviors;" in particular three graphs that show results for those who visited a grocery store, a friends residence, a bar, or who had friend's visit. Graph Two of that series also shows the early stay-at-home 80 percent in April down to just under 40 percent prior to Christmas week, a drop by one-half. Graph Three of the series shows a near parallel at the 80 percent line between hiking and close contact with "coresidents." All of it indicates a possible connection between mitigation and surge, but it still cannot be verified. The low bar on the graph shows that at least some of the mitigation measures are being observed, such as "shared items like towels or utensils with others." Mitigation, thus, is an a-weighted system where some of the requirements are being met, but others are not. 
     It might also be noted that Tap's headline does little to address the spectrum of mitigation measures, which are strong and which are weak; the reporter uses a sensational headline with the buzzword that L.A. residents are "defying" stay-at-home. Adding to that is any disclaimer by the USC team that its material evidence at Dornsife might be misinterpreted by the media for the purpose of readership. Dornsife also offers readers the opportunity to submit their own series of questions for a survey.
     What's missing from all of the data, in spite of the fact it can be filtered by age, gender, income, race and education, is the motive, the intent of the survey respondents. For instance, under that same category from above, three survey questions showed washing hands to be the foremost mitigation measure at 95 and above percent approval, wearing protective face covering at just under 90 percent, and included on the graph, praying, at a dismal 70 percent compared to the others. The graph doesn't indicate whether the respondents actually used any or all of the two high-value measures, with praying being far more sophisticated in response. In fact, that very issue is being contested in court surrounding the indoor worship ban which has been overturned in court, as reported by Kristina Bravo and Sara Welch at KTLA;
     " 'No matter what a Superior Court judge says and given what’s happening now, it is simply too risky to gather indoors with other people who do not live with you,' the L.A. County Department of Public Health said in a statement." 
     From all of the above, it is apparent that a breakdown of civil authority might suggest the rather nonchalant attitude the general public has for the mitigation measures; that includes infighting between local governments in L.A. county, with reports the authorities will not enforce the mandates. Combined with the dispute between the courts and the houses of worship, there appears to be no direction at all in the strategy. All of that might be reflected in the survey responses as there is only the so-called "margin of error" to indicate what might be considered the truth in the stats. Added to that are the rather superficial variables of age, gender, race etc. to show the more meaningful, hidden psychological mechanisms as motive and intent with regard to response.
     It is probably unfair to characterize the general public as defiant in the face of an existential threat, it is human nature to spit in the eye of the devil. With all the talk of non-existent "herd immunity," why should it be a stretch of the imagination that people not just have a lack of understanding of that very threat, but also have a contempt for it as well? Human spirit and determination cannot be rated in statistics, no matter how a-weighted, extrapolated or logarithmically scaled. None of the USC findings show the resolve of the people to overcome the obstacle. 


      The depletion of the national strategic stockpile has been eradicated, basic consumer goods are beginning to reappear on the shelves, the FDA has approved several pharmaceutical companies for vaccines to be administered. In spite of all of the positive turns, the casualty count continues to climb dramatically with health officials factoring in the holiday superspreader coefficient. Lacking in all of the signs of recovery is the one of patience, all around. It is the one key ingredient that will alter the course of the fight against the most insidious virus that has gripped the nation since the AIDS scare of the last century. Suggestions for USC surveys might include that along with questions of intent, motivation, confidence in public officials, self-control and restraint from taboo activities. 
     In the words of 60s icon Jim Morrison of The Doors, "No one here gets out alive," perhaps some of us will.


Marco Rubio Rails Against Fauci, says he "lied about masks," and distorted "herd immunity"

"Dr. Fauci lied about masks in March. Dr. Fauci has been distorting the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity," Rubio wrote. "It isn't just him. Many in elite bubbles believe the American public doesn't know 'what's good for them' so they need to be tricked into 'doing the right thing.'"

Dr. Fauci defends the herd immunity estimate--
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