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Tuesday, December 29, 2020

HERDIMMUNITY--Population-Driven Transmission Model & --COVID-19 SUSTAINABILITY THRESHOLD

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     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Syndicated)--While some in the professional medical field are busy blaming the federal government for failure in its effort to halt the spread of coronavirus, most are actually working tirelessly out in the field making every effort to do just that. The purpose of the criticism serves no purpose at all, in fact, the parameters required for a viral outbreak to become an epidemic have no relation at all to government intervention, or lack thereof. Dobson and Carper have noted in BioScience journal, in the published article, "Infectious Diseases and Human Population History," the root cause is the size of the population;


     "Epidemiological theory suggests that host population is critical in determining whether a pathogen can become established and remain endemic in a population." (Dobson, Carper, 116)
Epidemiology is the study of outbreaks, endemic means restricted to a region. What's clear from the statement is that the more susceptible hosts available, the more likely the virus will take hold. It is known as the Threshold for Disease Establishment (H, subscript "t"). The low end is 500,000 with an estimate of 700,000 for measles. Anywhere the population exceeds the threshold, the probability of an epidemic is high from a sheer mathematical standpoint. H(t) is based on the ratio of infection R(0) which can be greater or less than zero (0), and determines whether the infections are increasing or decreasing. As for the use of vaccinations to control and eradicate a pathogen, the study cites the concept of "herd immunity," original terminology to control disease in cattle. Noted is that as more of the population is inoculated, the infected persons have limited contact with those susceptible, but adds;
     "As the percentage of the population that is immunized increases, there are linear decreases in the total incidence of the disease in the population and increasingly rapid decreases in amongst the proportion of individuals not vaccinated." (124)
That linear, or rapid, decrease is the gradual recession of the virus in the population over time. According to an article in The Sheboygan Press with respect to inoculation by the Salk vaccine against polio in 1957;
     "The polio rate fell dramatically in 1956--from a peak of 57,879 cases in  1952 and 29,983 in 1955 to 'only' 15,128 lats (sp) year." (Sheboygan Press, 2)
This is an indicator of one of the first inoculation programs and its case rate decrease, which was not linear, but also not exponential, best described as a "half-life." The coronavirus epidemic began in China in 2019, thus labeled "COVID-19." It spread rapidly across the United States in 2020, with the initial flareups along the West coast in California and Washington, where the population could sustain the spread. By the end of the year, the epidemic had become an endemic pandemic. In December, the first wave of vaccine rollouts was distributed with the same unpredictable reactions as found in those of the Salk vaccine and the temporal shortfall of the killed live-virus types for measles inoculations. Today, ground-zero of the resilience of the pathogen can be found in one of the largest population centers in the United States, Los Angeles. 
     Current distribution of the available vaccines is ongoing, but across the board throughout the health departments nationwide. That is not, according to the Dobson-Carper model regarding population-driven transmission of the virus, the ideal procedure. The best approach would be to focus on Los Angeles itself, inoculate the entire city, surrounding counties and restrict incoming individual traffic. Forget the ideal, much-debated (NY Times, CNN) "herd-immunity" percentage and break the transmission ratio, drive it into negative territory. That would be the ultimate test of the population-driven transmission model. Available statistics reveal the highest transmission component, by age, gender, ethnic origin, and those would be the first wave target inoculations; not necessarily front line workers or society "essentials." Vaccinating the Vice-President was all for show with little practical application as he is isolated, quarantined enough, to be neither a transmitter nor a host. Statistics also reveal the highest susceptible hosts in the population. 

As Hospitals Roll Out COVID-19 Vaccines, Health Care Workers Describe Chaos And Anger

Health care workers across the country have started receiving COVID-19 vaccines, but doctors and nurses at some of the nation's top hospitals are raising the alarm, charging that vaccine distribution has been unfair and a chaotic "free-for-all."
     The unknown factor is how long the eradication of coronavirus will take, not just in the United States, but globally. Aside from new hysteria created in the media over more virulent strains of the virus compounding the difficulty in success of the base model vaccine, the prospect of serum combination into a cure-all elixir to limit all strains is just not possible for the time being. Dr. Fauci noted the rollout is lagging but expects it to reach desirable levels by April, 2021. He added that effective herd immunity ranges could be achieved by the end of next summer. (CNN, State of the Union) For the United States, with its penchant in the media and disgruntled, overwhelmed medical professionals for defeatism, that may not be good enough, but it will have to do. 
Cited
Dobson, Andrew P., and E. Robin Carper. “Infectious Diseases and Human Population History.” BioScience, vol. 46, no. 2, 1996, pp. 115–126. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/1312814. Accessed 29 Dec. 2020.
Dr. Salk Still Trying To Improve Vaccine, The Sheboygan Press, 30 March 1957, Page 2.
     
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HERDIMMUNITY--"Vaccine Failure" Primer--POLIO, MEASLES, #COVID-19

   
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     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Syndicated) --" 'The public's patience has been snapped by the revelation that the Eisenhower administration failed utterly to anticipate and plan for even the most fundamental problem' regarding distribution of Salk polio vaccine.' " (Wisconsin State Journal, 2)


     The year was 1955, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin adopted the above resolution adding that the federal government failed to insure proper testing and rationing of the short supply. Other problems with the rollout of the polio vaccine involved the serum itself, as reported in the UK by The Guardian;
     "This occurrence may have been due to vaccine which, by deficiency in the tests themselves, or by the error in the performance of the tests, passed the established safety procedures and yet contained sufficiently large amounts of live viruses to infect a small number of recipients." (The Guardian, 7)
The particular blend of polio vaccine had, according to the article, three different types of polio virus mixed together, accounting for the presence of remaining live viruses. That same month, the Idaho State Public Health Department banned the use of the Salk vaccine, citing " 'developers and promoters' of the vaccine of an apparent 'lack of interest' in the polio outbreak which followed inoculations." (Los Angeles Evening City News, 3) The developer of the vaccine was Cutter Laboratories of Berkeley, California. It was cleared of the failure when the federal government eventually accepted blame due to inadequate safety standards. Following a four month investigation, there was still no concrete explanation as to why the system failed. What can be found, even with the limited effectiveness of the Salk vaccine, was the outcome itself, as reported in 1957 by The Sheboygan Press;
     "The polio rate fell dramatically in 1956--from a peak of 57,879 cases in  1952 and 29,983 in 1955 to 'only' 15,128 lats (sp) year." (Sheboygan Press, 2)
This is an indicator of one of the first inoculation programs and its case rate decrease, which was not linear, but also not exponential, best described as a "half-life." 
     The failures related to the measles in the 1970s fell within the expected range of three to five per cent with the live virus but for different reasons, chronicled in Pennsylvania's Lebanon Daily News and attributed to two different strains of the virus;
     "The incubation for regular measles is seven to 14 days and for German measles, 14 to 21 days. Thus a child may have been exposed to measles lone or two weeks before and have the disease in his system at the time the vaccine is given." (Lebanon Daily News, 14)
By mid-1975, a resurgence of measles in California was attributed not to the actual failure of the vaccine or the lack of mass inoculation, but to the actual potency, or life, of the vaccine itself;
     "Many children were immunized during the period 1963 to 1968 with inactive or killed virus. The immunity associated with this vaccine was relative short in duration." (Mendocino Coast Beacon, 10)
The article also noted some of the vaccine might have failed due to improper storage and warned that "no vaccine is 100% effective." Nationally at the time, measles hotspots were popping up and were attributed to "failure" although the characterization may have been misleading. No one knew for certain just how long the initial inoculations in the late 60s along with booster shots were effective,. but the answer to that came a few years later. 
     Some of the shortfalls echoed in the history of vaccinations relating to polipo and the measles can be found in the early rollout of COVID-19 vaccines:

Long lines, crashing websites, conflicting information confound COVID-19 vaccine rollout to Florida seniors

"I really need this vaccine," Mary Ravis said. She and her husband, 69 and 72 years old, respectively, have underlying health conditions. "We figured it would fill up fast."

Cited
State Democrats Hit Government's Vaccine 'Failures', Wisconsin State Journal, 23 May 1955, Page 2.
Live Virus Found in Vaccine, The Guardian, 11 June 1955, Page 7.
Idaho Bans Salk Vaccine As Failure, Los Angeles Evening City News, 27 June 1955, Page 3.
Dr. Salk Still Trying To Improve Vaccine, The Sheboygan Press, 30 March 1957, Page 2.
Safeguard Your Health, More on Measles, Lebanon Daily News, 03 June 1971, Page 14. 
Measles On The Increase, Vaccinations Urged, Mendocino Coast Beacon, 17 July 1975, Page 10.

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Monday, December 28, 2020

COVID19--Herd Immunity, Stochastic Threshold--FAUCI & MEASLES DYNAMICS

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     "What's not being addressed...is the rate of decline in the population..."


       Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Net)--Appearing on CNN's State of the Union yesterday hosted by Dana Bash, foremost immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci was forced to respond to his wildly gyrating projections on the concept of "herd immunity." Fauci used known statistics related to the measles in order to make his estimate, which was any where from 75-80 percent on the lower end of the spectrum, to 90-95 percent on the higher end. In addition, asked "when" all of the vaccines would be administered to achieve at least the mid-range, Fauci reported not until the end of Summer, 2021. Called out on the fact that stats were slow to show just how many shots had been given, the immunologist stated there is always some reporting confusion when a n ew vaccine is administered. Even then, the entire concept of "herd immunity" appears to be based on what he referred to its relationship to another highly infectious respiratory illness, the measles. A review of primary sources regarding measles and herd immunity produces quite a different story.   


     In 1971, the question of the effectiveness of a vaccine against a disease was questioned by Dr. John M. Leedom of the USC School of Medicine in an article published by Robert Cooke in the Town Talk (Alexandria, Louisiana);
     "Furthermore, Leedom says, vaccinating a great number of persons doesn't appear to produce a desired effect, an effect called herd immunity. 'We used to think that if we hit a magic percentage figure an epidemic couldn't be sustained...Yet some studies with different populations show that immunity rates as high as 80 per cent aren't enough to protect the rest of the population. We found that rubella (German measles) epidemics proceed until 100 per cent of the susceptible persons have been infected.' " 
Leedom also noted in the article that even though the vaccine was effective in those inoculated, a "weak " form of the virus was still passed on to those in close proximity. By contrast, a decade before that, the new polio vaccines didn't guarantee a slowdown or eradication of the highly contagious disease, as reported in 1961 by the Fort Collins Coloradoan;
     "For polio vaccination does not confer so-called 'herd' immunity. Vaccination of a fair number of individuals in the population does not suppress the disease." 
That report filed by the Colorado Medical Society. Still other reports from the early 60s indicated that at least one type of oral vaccine would create herd immunity in those who received no inoculation at all, so the matter could only be settled in the overall statistics. Dr. H.H. Williams, Dayton City Health commissioner, had this to say in 1963 regarding polio vaccination;
     "WHEN THE immunization rate gets so high in the herd, the disease does not spread."
Still, that seems to be more wishful thinking than proven scientific fact. Doctors, immunologists and developers of truth serum that offer elixir remedies can never be sure of the outcome until the actual doses are administered. Even then, strains of the original virus appear in the course of mass inoculation that might bypass the cure. All of this is ignored in the face of the spread of the contagion, replaced by some magical percentage that will eradicate the epidemic. That brings up yet another point that hasn't been addressed.
      The nation has watched throughout the course of 2020 the spike in coronavirus cases and the number of deaths that resulted. Several graphs show and compare confirmed-suspected cases, hospitalized and ICU committed cases, and the casualty count itself. The graphs are impressive, exponential, by nature, some taking into account weighted coefficients; that's about as far as it goes.
Dr. Fauci, in his SOTU interview with Dana Bash, gave only estimates to the percentages projected to achioeve the mythical herd immunity that will rescue the population from the "scourge;"

     (02:48) FAUCI: "It's a guesstimate, I gave a range..."
     (03:57) FAUCI: "I think we're going to get there, end of March, beginning of April..."
     (04:05) FAUCI: "It's probably going to take several months..."

What's not being addressed in the interview is the rate of decline in the population. Will that be according to some logarithmic decay equation in much the same way the surge was plotted, or will it be a slow, gradual, almost linear reduction in the road to recovery? Will the pandemic disappear as fast as it appeared? 


     The answer to that would be in the measles modelling at JSTOR by Bjornstad, Finkelstadt and Grenfell, "The cycles are driven by a rapid (initially roughly exponential) depletion of susceptible hosts," which has already occurred. The authors then establish a stochastic disease model. Several of the plots are innovative and beyond the standard time plotted exponential graphs used currently to reflect infections; one of which is infected versus available population. This particular graph plot might indicate just how far the virus can reach out into the population before an overall un-inoculated herd immunity could possibly take effect. Although the x-axis on the graph indicates a "Susceptible population," that doesn't mean everyone who comes into contact with the virus will get sick. On the y-axis, "Infected population" also does not show that everyone exposed to the virus will get sick, merely exposed. 



     In yet another model, a number of variables are taken into account that would have an effect on the growth rate of the virus in the community, such as number of "immigrants," the growth rate, community size, and proportion infected. That may explain why, in all of the California purple tier regions, the one that hasn't really dropped below the 15 per cent ICU occupancy level, has been in the far north above Sacramento. 
     The measles epidemic dynamics are worth noting, but to a greater degree in what has been presented by health officials. Two things still remain vague with relation to herd immunity and mass inoculation, not made clear by Dr. Fauci. The first is where to predict to peak in the graph, which may be considered a stochastic, random model since it's upward turn post-Thanksgiving. The second is the downturn dynamics of the pandemic as vaccinations increase, the nature of the slope of the graph, and not just related to time.
     The vaccine driven decrease of infection rate in a population can be found in the Bioscience Journal article by Dobson and Carper, Infectious Diseases and Human Population History;
     "One of the major additional effects is the reduction of infected individuals in the population due to the reduced number of contacts that infected individuals have with susceptible individuals. The effect is called herd immunity. As the percentage of the population that is immunized increases, there are linear decreases in the total incidences of the disease in the population  and increasingly rapid decreases amongst the proportion of individuals not vaccinated."  (Dobson, Carper, 124)
The rapidly accelerating graph as the pandemic sweeps across the population may well not be mirrored as the disease wanes in proportion to vaccination and the in-place existing mitigation measures. Thus, as the pandemic appeared overnight, it may take months, possibly years, for it to be completely eradicated even with 100 percent herd immunity.

LA County To Require 10-Day Quarantine For Travelers

“Because of the likelihood of exposure to COVID-19 while traveling outside of L.A County, for everyone that traveled or are planning to travel back into L.A. County, you must quarantine for 10 days,” the department said in a news release.
In fact, the exact opposite is true. The virus thrives where the population is dense as it has a large selection of susceptible individuals to infect. Someone travelling outside of the county, to a remote area where the rate is lower, as in Northern California, has a greater chance of contaminating that region and should be quarantined there upon arrival.
Cited
Cooke, R., Town Talk, 29 September 1971, Page 30.
The Fort Collins Coloradoan, 11 May 1961, Page 13
Dayton Daily News, 13 January 1963, Page 21.

Bjørnstad, Ottar N., et al. “Dynamics of Measles Epidemics: Estimating Scaling of Transmission Rates Using a Time Series SIR Model.” Ecological Monographs, vol. 72, no. 2, 2002, pp. 169–184. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/3100023. Accessed 28 Dec. 2020.

Dobson, Andrew P., and E. Robin Carper. “Infectious Diseases and Human Population History.” BioScience, vol. 46, no. 2, 1996, pp. 115–126. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/1312814. Accessed 29 Dec. 2020.



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COVID19--"Herd Immunity" Origin--CATTLE, EUGENICS & FAUCI

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                  "No sugar coating, you're saying 75-80 percent is the goal...," Dana Bash, CNN          

     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC Net)--   At the turn of the last century, the cattle industry was inflicted with brucellosis, also known by its more common name of "contagious abortion," as reported in the Kansas Farmer;    
     "6. Abortion disease can be controlled by proper methods of herd management. Control is dependent on three fundamental principles: (1) Preventing the spread of infection. (2) Developing herd immunity. (3) Treating affected animals to promote recovery and preserve the reproductive function." 


     The pamphlet notes that the original method of containing brucellosis was to send all of the stock to the block. That thinking gradually evolved to keeping the healthy cattle that produced healthy offspring as they appeared to be immune to the disease;
     "The vigorous heifer calves which reach maturity in spite of the disease are naturally from the more resistant cows and they seem to inherit this tolerance."
It suggested that "Herd improvement can also be secured through the use of pure-bred sires."  
The pamphlet recommends not introducing new breeding cows into the herd, infection persisted where cows were constantly bought and sold. The proper course of action was based directly on;
     "Herd immunity is developed, therefore, by retaining the immune cows, raising the calves, and avoiding the introduction of foreign cattle."
It is a terrifying thought that in the future, if not with coronavirus, the next more resilient strain of a deadly virus might well force the human population to resort to the simple rules of cattle breeding as set forth in the Kansas Farmer pamphlet, which include the elimination of infected individuals and the practice of eugenics to develop herd immunity in the population. 
     A year later, The Kansas City Star recommended more robust procedures;
     "To prevent dissemination of the infection the aborting cow should be isolated and the dead calf and membranes destroyed; the genitals of the cow should be flushed immediately after abortion; the bull should be allowed to serve only healthy cows; quarters should be disinfected, sanitary methods of feeding followed, and the proper sanitary surroundings provided." 
That same method for preservation of the stock was recommended for other farm animals inflicted with other types of contagious disease, such as hogs. The Star article noted that those stockmen interested in preserving their herds should contact Doctor Potter at the state agricultural college. In his column "Livestock Questions Answered," published in The Oregon Daily Journal, Dr. M. Howes, Veterinarian, offered similar advice;
     "The prevention of infection to your herd can be made possible by the refusal to breed outside cows to your bull, and the raising of your own young animals so as not to admit any new animals to your herd. This is called herd immunity." 
By 1925, Dr. I. Forest Huddleston after four years of work at the Michigan Agricultural College,  developed a vaccine "living culture" that prevented the transmission of brucellosis, as reported in the Lexington Kentucky Leader. There was no question as to what caused the disease to spread, its remedy was clouded in how to go about preventing it. 
     With respect to the current pandemic in the human population, mitigation measures certainly have not reached the extreme to send the infected individuals to "the block" and there also doesn't seem to be any desire to breed with only "pure-bred sires." The very suggestion of the latter would bring on violent cultural repercussions and resistance. Curiously, Dr. Anthony Fauci, when interviewed by Dana Bash on CNN's  "State of the Union" yesterday, might have accidentally suggested exactly that;

    (07:13)  BASH: No sugar-coating, ... you're saying 75-80 percent is the goal (for herd immunity)...when is that supposed to happen?"
                 FAUCI: Well if you look at the logistics of it, Dana, we're going through the priority groups we started with...(mentions others such as front line workers and underlying condition patients)..."

     Fauci then mentions "essential people in society." (07:50) The immunologist then sugar-coats over just who these so-called "essential people" are, but from what was discovered above in the infected cattle, it certainly isn't the foreigners bought and sold at the auctions. It brings into question just who decides who these elite, gifted, immune people are with special privileges over the infected herd. In fact, what has been noted recently, many of these so-called essentials are indeed the ones breaking the rules and getting the virus. Fauci then refers  to the general population vaccine effort as "open season."
Possibly by accident alone, Dr. Fauci finds himself cornered by the very semantics he needs to avoid to prevent falling into the eugenics trap waiting somewhere down the graph if the vaccines fail to curtail.  

CNN's Dana Bash interviews Dr. Anthony Fauci on Herd Immunity

The immunologist discusses the variable factor in herd immunity as related to mitigation and vaccination

Cited:
Kansas Farmer, 26 October 1918, Page 4.
The Kansas City Star, 30 April 1919, Page 15. 
The Oregon Daily Journal, 10 April 1920, Page 6.
Lexington Leader, 18 February 1925, Page 9.
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Sunday, December 27, 2020

COVID19, DIVISION N--Relief Bill: Extracted, Indexed & E-PUBBED

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     The following 500 page plus document has been extracted from the Appropriations Bill under "Division N" and is the coronavirus legislation in e-pub format, indexed.




..


Index--

TITLE I—HEALTHCARE--2

TITLE II--ASSISTANCE TO INDIVIDUALS, FAMILIES AND BUSINESSES -- 5
Subtitle A—Unemployment Insurance - 5
Subtitle B-- COVID-related Tax Relief Act of 2020--   43

TITLE III—CONTINUING THE  PAYCHECK PROTECTION  PROGRAM AND OTHER SMALL  BUSINESS SUPPORT-- 120

TITLE IV—TRANSPORTATION--286
Subtitle A—Airline Worker Support Extension
Subtitle B—Coronavirus Economic Relief for Transportation Services Act --311
Subtitle C—Motor Carrier Safety Grant Relief Act of 2020--330
Subtitle D—Extension of Waiver Authority--333

TITLE V—BANKING--  333
Subtitle A—Emergency Rental Assistance--333
Subtitle B—Community Development Investment   -- 359
Subtitle C—Miscellaneous --  389

TITLE VI—LABOR PROVISIONS -- 393

TITLE VII—NUTRITION AND AGRICULTURE RELIEF -- 395
Subtitle A—Nutrition  -- 395
Subtitle B—Agriculture  -- 430

TITLE VIII—UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE -- 467

TITLE IX—BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS SERVICE  --  468

TITLE X—MISCELLANEOUS -- 537




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Friday, December 25, 2020

COVID19, CALIFORNIA--Los Angeles Hospital Regions--EAST, SOUTH, METRO, ETC


Hospitals on this map are the ones reporting the stats for the county by various regions defined below--



.. Breakdown by LA County Hospital Regions-- http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1081882_HospitalCOVIDAssessment2020-12.pdf

Antelope Valley-Newhall (AV)    (7-9) --3 hospitals
San Fernando Valley (SF)  (10-12)  -- 16 hospitals
San Gabriel Valley (SG)  (13-15) --  13 hospitals
East Region   (16-18)  --  8 hospitals
Metro Region (19-21)  -- 11 hospitals
West Region  (22-24)  --  6 hospitals
South Region  (25-27)  -- 13 hospitals

Workbook--
https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19HospitalsDashboard/Hospitals?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no


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COVID19, LOS ANGELES---The USC Surveys Analyzed--MOTIVE, INTENT, MITIGATION

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     Incline Village, NV (CBD)--Tuesday's article in Deadline by Tom Tap references the University of Southern California's extensive polls taken that relate to a variety of parameters with respect to the coronavirus outbreak. Some of the graphs available at Dornsife, USC are directly related to the medical aspects of the virus while others concern the social aspects. The Deadline article refers specifically to the social aspect and headlines with "L.A. Residents are Defying Stay-at-Home Order;


     "30% of the respondents to a recent survey indicated they had visited a friend, neighbor or relative or had visitors at their residence."
The reporter extrapolated that out to mean that 3 million of the L.A. residents are "not following the safety guidance." That is as close as Tap gets to taking a close look at the data presented at Dornsife, the rest of the Deadline article rehashes known information. There is also no link at the article to follow up on the story so that a clear understanding of the motive, intent and other aspects of the survey respondents can be examined to verify a link between mitigation (social activity) and surge (confirmed cases). Tap alludes to it in the remaining paragraphs of the article but fails to make a connection. In fact, it draws into question as to whether the surveys themselves are useful in even establishing a link. 
     As mentioned, graphs from the surveys are divided into a number of categories: some medical, such as symptoms, risk and mental health, while others detail the social aspects such as discrimination, housing and the labor market. Tap used the stats-graphs under the category "Protective Social and Health Behaviors;" in particular three graphs that show results for those who visited a grocery store, a friends residence, a bar, or who had friend's visit. Graph Two of that series also shows the early stay-at-home 80 percent in April down to just under 40 percent prior to Christmas week, a drop by one-half. Graph Three of the series shows a near parallel at the 80 percent line between hiking and close contact with "coresidents." All of it indicates a possible connection between mitigation and surge, but it still cannot be verified. The low bar on the graph shows that at least some of the mitigation measures are being observed, such as "shared items like towels or utensils with others." Mitigation, thus, is an a-weighted system where some of the requirements are being met, but others are not. 
     It might also be noted that Tap's headline does little to address the spectrum of mitigation measures, which are strong and which are weak; the reporter uses a sensational headline with the buzzword that L.A. residents are "defying" stay-at-home. Adding to that is any disclaimer by the USC team that its material evidence at Dornsife might be misinterpreted by the media for the purpose of readership. Dornsife also offers readers the opportunity to submit their own series of questions for a survey.
     What's missing from all of the data, in spite of the fact it can be filtered by age, gender, income, race and education, is the motive, the intent of the survey respondents. For instance, under that same category from above, three survey questions showed washing hands to be the foremost mitigation measure at 95 and above percent approval, wearing protective face covering at just under 90 percent, and included on the graph, praying, at a dismal 70 percent compared to the others. The graph doesn't indicate whether the respondents actually used any or all of the two high-value measures, with praying being far more sophisticated in response. In fact, that very issue is being contested in court surrounding the indoor worship ban which has been overturned in court, as reported by Kristina Bravo and Sara Welch at KTLA;
     " 'No matter what a Superior Court judge says and given what’s happening now, it is simply too risky to gather indoors with other people who do not live with you,' the L.A. County Department of Public Health said in a statement." 
     From all of the above, it is apparent that a breakdown of civil authority might suggest the rather nonchalant attitude the general public has for the mitigation measures; that includes infighting between local governments in L.A. county, with reports the authorities will not enforce the mandates. Combined with the dispute between the courts and the houses of worship, there appears to be no direction at all in the strategy. All of that might be reflected in the survey responses as there is only the so-called "margin of error" to indicate what might be considered the truth in the stats. Added to that are the rather superficial variables of age, gender, race etc. to show the more meaningful, hidden psychological mechanisms as motive and intent with regard to response.
     It is probably unfair to characterize the general public as defiant in the face of an existential threat, it is human nature to spit in the eye of the devil. With all the talk of non-existent "herd immunity," why should it be a stretch of the imagination that people not just have a lack of understanding of that very threat, but also have a contempt for it as well? Human spirit and determination cannot be rated in statistics, no matter how a-weighted, extrapolated or logarithmically scaled. None of the USC findings show the resolve of the people to overcome the obstacle. 


      The depletion of the national strategic stockpile has been eradicated, basic consumer goods are beginning to reappear on the shelves, the FDA has approved several pharmaceutical companies for vaccines to be administered. In spite of all of the positive turns, the casualty count continues to climb dramatically with health officials factoring in the holiday superspreader coefficient. Lacking in all of the signs of recovery is the one of patience, all around. It is the one key ingredient that will alter the course of the fight against the most insidious virus that has gripped the nation since the AIDS scare of the last century. Suggestions for USC surveys might include that along with questions of intent, motivation, confidence in public officials, self-control and restraint from taboo activities. 
     In the words of 60s icon Jim Morrison of The Doors, "No one here gets out alive," perhaps some of us will.


Marco Rubio Rails Against Fauci, says he "lied about masks," and distorted "herd immunity"

"Dr. Fauci lied about masks in March. Dr. Fauci has been distorting the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity," Rubio wrote. "It isn't just him. Many in elite bubbles believe the American public doesn't know 'what's good for them' so they need to be tricked into 'doing the right thing.'"

Dr. Fauci defends the herd immunity estimate--
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Monday, November 30, 2020

MAD--Essay on Mutual Assured Destruction--#IRAN & THE BOMB


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     Incline Village, Nev. (EoC)-- Published in Rhetoric and Public Affairs in 2011, Leah Ceccarelli's article "Manufactured Scientific Controversy" defines the title as;

     "A scientific controversy is 'manufactured' in the public sphere when an arguer announces that there is an ongoing scientific debate in the technical sphere about a matter for which there is actually an overwhelming scientific consensus." (Ceccarelli, 196)



     The footnote attached to the definition makes the case for the two so-called spheres of "public" and "technical" where Ceccarelli notes the "boundaries between the two are permeable." In a sense, it sets the stage for the non-experts to encroach on the terrain of the experts and call the findings into question. To what degree the evidence of the claim is "overwhelming" is irrelevant. The footnote explicitly points to political policy making as the ultimate goal of those with self-interest beyond the scientific sphere. 

Uncertainty plays a large part in the process of calling into question scientific fact;

     "most scientific findings are inherently probabilistic and ambiguous." (197) 

Again, in the climate warming section, even with overwhelming evidence, Ceccarelli notes;

     "It seems to corroborate the essayists claim of a dogmatic orthodoxy by indicating that
supporters of the dominant paradigm would prefer to silence dissent."  (208)

Translated, the scientists themselves are to blame for allowing the so called "mercenaries" to refute the facts since they (the scientists) are too busy digging up more facts to pay attention to the debate in politics and the press. That very orthodoxy invites criticism. The truth of the matter is that the era of positivism has long since passed, replaced by one of skepticism. 

Based on the above criteria, it might be debated that military superiority is not necessarily a winning strategy in the modern world. The slogan "Might makes right" is something out of the 19th century but didn't really become a reality until atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The debate over whether to develop even more powerful nuclear weapons, especially the hydrogen, or "super" bomb, forced a great deal of soul searching in its developers such as J. Robert Oppenheimer and Edward Teller. (Halberstam, 151-174)

     Now, in the 21st century, with Russia's  annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, with the realignment of NATO forces in Europe, with the threat of development of the bomb by non-aligned nations as Iran and North Korea, it has become essential to question the doubters in the community that thermonuclear war is, as what might be defined from above "probabilistic and ambiguous,"  anything but "uncertain." The assassination of the top bomb expert in Iran last week is a barometer as to how serious the prospect has become.  (BBC) 

The policy was referred to "Mutual Assured Destruction" (MAD) that has prevented nuclear war. Today that policy is being challenged from within and from without.

" 'The central thing was the public had no control,' says Dr Christopher Laucht, a lecturer in British history at Leeds University. 'You were at the mercy of political decision makers. Apart from the fear that one side would do something stupid, there was also the fear of technology and the question of 'what if an accident happened'. ' " (BBC)

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran buries assassinated nuclear scientist

Iran has held a funeral for its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was assassinated on Friday in an attack that it has blamed on Israel. In a televised speech at the ceremony, Defence Minister General Amir Hatami vowed to avenge Fakhrizadeh's death and continue his path "vigorously".

Discussion reply:
     Paranoia is the bedfellow of conspiracy theory. Neville-Shepard cites Hofstadter's highlight of paranoid conspiracy: the vast network, transcends history, popular villains, the impending apocalypse, and the scapegoat. (Neville-Shepard) The author traces the "early style" to the post-Roosevelt era, in particular, President Truman. This fits well with the initial post regarding the advent of the Atomic Age and the role played by Truman and his cabinet, in particular the Secretary of State, Dean Acheson. 

    Following some rather high-profile spy trials and convictions, including Alger Hiss, who was a friend of Acheson, the Secretary went on the offensive;

     "The political pressure building around Truman to go ahead with the Super was relentless...Failure to do so, Acheson noted, 'would push the Administration into a political buzzsaw.' " (Halberstam, 61)

     Acheson created the specter of the apocalyptic villain in the form of the Soviet Union when at first, sharing nuclear technology appeared to be the preferred strategy considering the Kremlin had been an ally in World War Two. Acheson qualified for all of Hofstadter's categories of the paranoid style, accidentally or otherwise. 

     Today, the assassinated Iranian nuclear scientist became the latest casualty in this strategy of paranoid style, Instead of following up on the preceding regime's tireless efforts to bring Iran and North Korea into the nuclear community as constructive members, the current US administration deserted  arms agreements with those particular non-aligned nations. (Laub, Robinson)

     The paranoid nuclear holocaust environment has been given new life. Comparing Neville-Shepard to Ceccarelli is not as useful as comparing Neville-Shepard to himself, particularly with respect to the "subtextual" component of paranoid style. There is nothing subtextual about nuclear annihilation. There is every reason to believe certain non-aligned nations have atomic weapons capability, and the vehicles for delivery. We can only speculate on how the now long gone Secretary of State Dean Acheson  would characterize the immanent threat.

Cited:

Neville-Shepard, R., Paranoid Style, Full article: Paranoid Style and Subtextual Form in Modern Conspiracy Rhetoric (oclc.org) (Links to an external site.)

Laub, Z., Robinson, K., What Is the Status of the Iran Nuclear Agreement? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Pakistan latest nuclear power to condemn killing of Iranian scientist as world remains on edge

Pakistan is the latest nuclear power to condemn the killing of a top Iranian atomic scientist, deeming the act a destabilizing event in a region already plagued by widespread unrest. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a former Revolutionary Guard officer who led the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research was shot dead last Friday east of the Iranian capital in a yet unclaimed assassination that has fueled suspicions of Israeli involvement.

References:

Ceccarelli, Leah. “Manufactured Scientific Controversy: Science, Rhetoric, and Public Debate.” Rhetoric and Public Affairs, vol. 14, no. 2, 2011, pp. 195–228. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/41940538. Accessed 1 Dec. 2020.

Halberstam, David, The Fifties, 1993 Random House, NY

Iran Scientist Assassination, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran scientist 'killed by remote-controlled weapon' - BBC News (Links to an external site.)

de Castella, T., MAD, How did we forget about mutually assured destruction? - BBC News

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Thursday, November 26, 2020

COVID19--Gulf War Syndrome vs. Pandemic Fatigue --THE URNOVITZ STUDY, 1997

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ENG401B.1002 //James L’Angelle //University of Nevada, Reno //Spring 2021

Journal Entry 013: Gulf War Syndrome vs. Pandemic Fatigue 

      Noted in recent news is the world, and Americans in general, now experiencing “burnout” over the COVID-19 crisis and in more descriptive terms, “pandemic fatigue;”
      “In recent weeks, many countries have been reporting an increase in ‘pandemic fatigue’ – people are feeling demotivated about following recommended behaviours to protect themselves and others from the virus. Finding effective ways to tackle this fatigue and reinvigorate public vigilance is a growing challenge as the crisis continues. Pandemic fatigue evolves gradually over time and is affected by the cultural, social, structural and legislative environment.” (WHO) 


     There may be another explanation related to the burnout and it may not be psychological, but attributed to the very nature of the virus itself. In an Associated Press article written by Jim Abrams in 1996, the culprit in relation to the Gulf War Syndrome in soldiers was possibly a virus related to chemical exposure; 

      “WASHINGTON (AP) _ A California scientist says he has discovered genetic material common to Gulf War-era veterans that could provide a clue as to why so many became sick after serving in the 1991 war. Microbiologist Dr. Howard Urnovitz, in a study being presented Monday to a conference of Gulf War veterans in Tampa, Fla., said the genetic marker could point to the existence of a virus. The virus, in turn, could make veterans exposed to chemical agents or other toxins more susceptible to illness, he said.” (AP) 

      Urnovitz pegged the enterovirus, a common cold precursor, as the underlying genetic material found in the veterans. In other words, as a “precursor” goes, the genetic material would have had to be present in order for the reaction to exposure that causes the Gulf War Syndrome. That reaction is known as Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome in Gulf War Veterans. (VA) 
      The scientist used as a comparison the same phrase now being touted in the media as his epidemic fatigue syndrome where, “at least a dozen times in the last 60 years where many people were exposed to pollutants.”(AP) This brings into focus the role of the atmosphere and the components that might be contributing to that very pandemic burnout. 
     Notice when stay-at-home orders were given, pollution levels and smog over large industrialized areas and densely populated cities disappeared, and the infection levels dropped. If Urnovitz was correct, then that very presence of so-called “genetic material,” the precursor itself may be nothing more than smog that sets the stage not just for viral infection but the fatigue associated with it as well.      The actual technical study of Urnovitz and his team was published in the American Society for Microbiology under the Digital Object Identifier: 10.1128/CDLI.6.3.330-335.1999 (ASM) 

 References: 
Desert Storm mask image, 
Howard Urnovits/LinkedIn. (2) Howard Urnovitz | LinkedIn


 Submitted: 26 November 2020
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Friday, September 4, 2020

YELLOWJOURNALISM PANDEMIC-- Goldberg & The Atlantic--ELECTION 2020

        "...a so-called four-star general with second-hand information from yet another source who 'declined to comment.'..."
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LATE BULLETIN--2300 HRS PDT-- The Yellow Journalism Pandemic sweeping across mainstream media--Other media entities are coming out with similar unsubstantiated reports regarding the scandal, using the same tactics of non-existent anonymous officials:

Melania joins fights back against Trump called war heroes 'losers'

President Trump called US soldiers killed or injured in battle 'losers' and 'suckers', several senior administration sources disclosed to the Atlantic The Atlantic report says Trump cancelled a visit to Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in Paris in 2018 because he was worried about his hair in the rain He reportedly asked: 'Why should I go to that cemetery?

     " Fox News independently confirmed all of the details in the Atlantic's report, with their national security correspondent, Jennifer Griffin, appearing on the network to say her sources had told her it was entirely true. Griffin said that she was told the president did indeed decide he didn't want to attend the rainy ceremony commemorating U.S. war dead in France. 'The president drives a lot,' Griffin said she was told. 'The other world leaders drove to the cemeteries. He just didn't want to go.' Two former senior officials also confirmed to her that he disparaged war dead. According to Griffin, one of the former senior Trump administration officials told her:''

THIS JUST IN--1930HRS/PDT-- "Stand by Your Man"...

US first lady defends Trump over alleged 'losers' quip

Melania Trump on Friday defended her husband against allegations that he referred to US Marines buried in a WWI cemetery in France as "losers" and "suckers." On Thursday The Atlantic reported -- citing four anonymous sources who said they had firsthand knowledge of the discussions -- that President Donald Trump had referred to US Marines buried in a World War I cemetery in France as "losers" and "suckers" for getting killed in action.

"It has become a very dangerous time when anonymous sources are believed above all else, & no one knows their motivation. This is not journalism -- It is activism. And it is a disservice to the people of our great nation," she tweeted.


     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC)--Apparently, the right to a fair trial applies only to criminals. Politicians don't get that same luxury, whatever anybody claims they said or did, is true, with the accuser the luxury of remaining anonymous. We went through all of this not too long ago with the so-called "whistle blower" scandal that resulted in the impeachment of the president. That impeachment arrived D.O.A. in the Senate. There was no accountability after that for the allegations that led up to the process. Again we are faced with the same dilemma, one of the president's alleged insult of American servicemen and women. 


     A close reading of the article written by Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic reveals just how shallow the claim is that the president made the alleged comments;
     "In a conversation with senior staff members on the morning of the scheduled visit, Trump said, 'Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.' " (1)
Note the usual tactic of quoting "senior staff members," one of the tactics employed by yellow journalism. 

yel·low jour·nal·ism noun noun: yellow journalism; plural noun: yellow journalisms journalism that is based upon sensationalism and crude exaggeration. "equating murder and dismemberment with smoking pot is the worst yellow journalism" 

     Several paragraphs down, the author of the jaded Atlantic article, makes the same accusation regarding a different visit; 
     "But according to sources with knowledge of this visit..."
Again, the claim cannot be verified by any names. What has the Associated Press Stylebook have to say about anonymous sources?
     "anonymous sources: Whenever possible, we pursue information on the record. When a source insists on background or off-the-record ground rules, we must adhere to a strict set of guidelines." (2)
Those rules include but are not limited to the information not speculation, reliable, approval from news managers. The rules are strict and straightforward and anyone who has had journalism boot camp understands how they are violated often and flagrantly. 
     Most of the article by Goldberg has focus on the Trump-McCain falling out and it offers no detailed information at all on who blew the whistle; no names, faces, followups, a deliberate attempt to smear the Commander-in-Chief.  Further on in  the article, it refers to a so-called four-star general with second-hand information from yet another source who "declined to comment." 
    The mainstream media immediately latched on to it like gospel, the opponent outraged by the comments, whether they were true or false didn't even matter.

Trump says he thinks John Kelly behind claim he insulted dead troops

President Donald Trump speculated that 'it could have been a guy like a John Kelly' who 'bad-mouthed' him in the Atlantic magazine Trump furiously denied a report he referred to fallen troops as 'losers' Kelly is a former Marine General who served as White House chief of staff and whose

    No opportunity for the president to be given the benefit of the doubt to respond to anonymous, dubious no-name "ex-officials" even while the author of the Atlantic piece violated all the rules of journalism ethics and etiquette.
    In yet another attempt to further shame the president and further his crusade, Goldberg appeared on TV and announced that Washington "insiders" were in disbelief;

The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg Says Administration Insiders Are in 'Disbelief' Over Trump's Attitude Toward Veterans (Video)

The Atlantic's editor in chief Jeffrey Goldberg said Friday morning that those close to President Donald Trump are in "disbelief" about his stance towards veterans and military service. In a bombshell piece published Thursday night, Goldberg reported that Trump had referred to veterans - including former POW and senator John McCain - as "losers" and "suckers."

The article fails to name any of these insiders who are in disbelief...
     A look at Goldberg's profile shows the collusion he has with the others on board out to assassinate the president's character; 
      "Goldberg's book, Prisoners, was hailed as one of the best books of 2006 by the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Slate, The Progressive, Washingtonian magazine, and Playboy." (3)
It doesn't take an anonymous source to see the lineup at his profile is a well-chosen rogue's gallery of the main characters in the conspiracy. All of the above are notorious for using the "anonymous source" technique and it is almost always passed off at face value as true.  Other profiles around the web  of the author aren't so kind.

Cited
2. anonymous, AP Stylebook 55th Edition, Basic Books, NY, 2020-22, Page 18.




The Press Pass issued to James L'Angelle, Cyberstorm, by White House press bureau when President Clinton visited McClellan AFB in Sacramento, 1994

Eyeless on Campus on Twitter:


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Friday, August 21, 2020

PANDEMIC PTSD-- Dr. Fauci's Psychoanalysis--A HOT LZ

     "...forced to wear facial protective covering as indicative of triggering the traumatic Zero Dark Thirty moment..."
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     Incline Village, Nev. (EOC)--Dr. Fauci, in some capacity the point "medico," (a term not included in the Associated Press 2020-22 Stylebook, 55th Edition) for response to the coronavirus emergency, has encouraged throughout the pandemic not to "despair." (1) The immunologist is confident the population will survive. From the outset, Dr. Fauci has juggled charts and graphs, while waving his hands illustrating surge versus mitigation, from the podium at the White House press briefings, but that certainly doesn't make him a mathematician. Any more than using words like "do not despair" qualifies him as a psychologist. The world needs no more patriarchal reassurances from those who lack the qualifications to give guidance.


     Next, there is the so-called "Bin Laden assassin," the hero Navy SEAL who has been claiming credit for liquidating the Al Qaeda arch-villain during a raid a long time ago when Obama was still president. Recently, he found himself standing tall in front of the Admiral for spouting off on social media that wearing a mask is something only done by (term omitted due to its derogatory nature). In addition, the ex-sniper just found himself under  the Uniform Code of Military Justice Article 86, AWOL, or is that just plain 86-ed, from flying on the airline where he made an (term omitted) out of himself in front of the American public he has sworn to protect and defend. (2) 
     Dr. Fauci, in his new role as psychoanalyst, might detect a certain hidden guilt complex in the SEAL lingering from the "Zero Dark-Thirty" raid that's left an indelible mark on the sailor after all these years. It's known as Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, PTSD, and was first diagnosed in soldiers during the Vietnam War era. The online source for the American Psychiatric Association describes PTSD as;
     "a psychiatric disorder that may occur in people who have experienced or witnessed a traumatic event such as a natural disaster, a serious accident, a terrorist act, war/combat, or rape or who have been threatened with death, sexual violence or serious injury." (3)
Of course it had other names in other wars, but it's the same symptoms, by definition. There is no telling if the Bin Laden raid was the only true near-death encounter the sailor had  but it would be the one that would generally fit the category of a PTSD related experience. 
     In an even more recent episode of yet another soldier who appears to misunderstand his role in being a defender of the American people, Turning Point USA spokesperson Rob Smith reacted to Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti's decision to cut the power on the Hollywood Hills covid-spreading party house, after fair warning;

Los Angeles mayor cuts power to Hollywood part house amid coronavirus pandemic

Turning Point USA spokesperson Rob Smith calls action 'authoritarian' and cites Democratic control as the reason for people moving out of cities.

Author of "Always a Soldier," Rob Smith, in an interview on Fox News on Friday said;


     "Well not only do they want to control the spread of covid, but they want to control every aspect of your life." 
It is unclear in this quote just who "they" are, which is the usual convenient cop-out for fear-mongering and anti-authority rhetoric, he didn't come out of the closet and finger the mayor as responsible. Whether it's just plain standard party propaganda from Turning Point USA or bona fide paranoia on soldier Rob Smith's part, is uncertain. If the latter is true, Dr. Fauci might consider this another case of wartime induced PTSD.
      Smith went on to call out the Democrats as "authoritarian" and responsible for "controlling most of our major cities." Again, controlling what is unclear unless it infers controlling the spread of the killer virus. Turning Point USA characterizes itself as a "Student Movement for Freedom." (4)  Any number of online references show that Smith is a decorated war hero but it is ambiguous as to whether he is currently enrolled in college. Smith's  background at Turning Point only shows an Army Commendation Medal and the Combat Infantry Badge, which calls into question his status as highly decorated. (5) This may be another case for Dr. Fauci's expertise in the field of psychoanalysis. Of course, in the case of Smith, there was also the Gulf War Syndrome, but the symptoms are more physiological. (6) Still, there is lingering doubt as to Smith, as in the case of the Navy SEAL above, of his apparent self- infatuation, possibly brought on by being a spokesperson or person of interest in today's social media driven culture. At the Mayo Clinic website, several symptoms of PTSD are given; 
      "...distressing memories of the traumatic event, severe emotional distress or physical reactions to something that reminds you of the traumatic event, avoiding places, activities or people that remind you of the traumatic event, negative thoughts about yourself, other people or the world." (7)
These are but a few that might indicate the behavior of the sailor on that Delta flight but for a closer look, The New Yorker published a standup after action report following the Bin Laden raid in 2011; 


      "That night, he wore a shirt and trousers in Desert Digital Camouflage, and carried a silenced Sig Sauer P226 pistol, along with extra ammunition; a CamelBak, for hydration; and gel shots, for endurance. He held a short-barrel, silenced M4 rifle. (Others seals had chosen the Heckler & Koch MP7.) A “blowout kit,” for treating field trauma, was tucked into the small of James’s back... He wore a noise-cancelling headset, which blocked out nearly everything besides his heartbeat." (8)
The story, written by Nicholas Schmidle, also notes the team wore night-vision goggles. If Dr, Fauci were to psychoanalyze the sailor who lost it on the Delta flight, he might discover the similarity to being in the confined space of the aircraft resembling the Chinook helicopter, with a veteran in a USMC baseball cap snoozing nearby and forced to wear facial protective covering as indicative of triggering the traumatic Zero Dark Thirty moment. There has been no report if the SEAL was under medication at the time or had too many drinks on the plane that caused him to go on his twitter rage. 
    Two cases alone do not signal a red flare in a hot LZ in the case of combat veterans somehow having trouble coping with covid. Normally soldiers back from the bush in-country dive for cover when a car backfires on a busy boulevard. But then again, with the pandemic possibly still in its incubating stages, the world may be a long way from getting back to "normal."


"Medico," M*A*S*H, "Major Ego," season 7, episode 9, (1978)    https://www.allmovie.com/movie/mash--major-ego-v281232, 
Bin Laden compound photoillustration  by John Ritter from the New Yorker story.

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Sunday, August 16, 2020

PANDEMIC PRATTLE-- Coin Shortage Scandal--EOC/2020 EXCLUSIVE

     
    Italy, 1975:  "...shopkeeper surreptitiously showed the shopper the cash drawer devoid of coins..." 
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     Incline Village (EOC) -- Yet another unique variable of the virus sweeping the nation is the overnight disappearance of small change, a convenience, and an inconvenience, taken for granted just six months ago. Now it's become a mild nightmare. Stores are refusing to allow cash purchases and in reverse, are now limiting cash back on purchases. Media reports any number of reasons for the pocket change shortfall and the immediate report is that the Mint has cut back on production. (1) 


     The story seems to have no legs there unless a closer look at previous coin shortages offers alternative explanations, and room for the conspiracy trolls on social media to send up a red flare. 
Even before  the Civil War, valuable metals in short supply created demand for the "shinplaster," a paper substitute of small denomination that many at the time considered worthless. (2) The problem carried over into the War Between the States. The scarcity of metal prevailed during World War I as reported in the Miami Herald at the time;
     "There is a great scarcity of copper coin in France, and it is more than suspected that much of this cupriferous commodity has found its way to Germany, where it is used in the manufacture of munitions of war." (3)
A coin shortage in Egypt in October, 1941 resulted in the arrest of "several speculators, chiefly small-time money changers" for selling coins higher than their face value. (4) A similar situation arose about that same time in Cuba that was offset by using cellophane wrapped stamps. (5)



     One year after Pearl Harbor, it wasn't foreign governments out to cause a small change panic, but the Treasury indirectly blamed the nation's kids for a conspiracy to loot the coins from circulation, as reported in the Pennsylvania Republican and Herald;
     "Washington, Dec. 7 (UP) --The Treasury wants 30,000,000 school children to smash their piggy banks today and put their pennies and nickels back into circulation. The Treasury has sent letters to state, county and city school superintendents urging them to organize 'coin round-ups' to help meet the shortage of small change." (6)
From the archives, it appears a shortage of copper, nickel and silver, along with hoarding, persisted throughout World War II. The most serious numismatic shortfall occurred in the early Sixties. The rise of the vending machine was partly to blame as coins, once deposited for sodas and candy bars, would remain out of circulation for weeks until collected (7)
     In 1975, a strike at the Canadian mint in Ottawa placed that nation at a severe coin shortage, also related to money being used for "vending machines, parking meters, pay telephones and cookie jars." (8) That same year, some had seriously considered that precious metal shortages in relation to minted small change might be related to a conspiracy  in Italy. 


    Victor Simpson reporting for the Associated Press in The Wilkes-Barre Times-Leader in 1975 reported with a dateline out of Rome that the coin shortage there was related to other than basic economics; 
      "One newspaper suggested the coin shortage was a plot by a subversive group trying to make citizens lose faith in the ability of their government to run the country." (9)
Other stories blamed it on Japanese watch makers needing the raw materials for watchmaking. In a rather startling expose of just how far the coin shortage led to extremes in Italy back then, Ray Jones, a Pennsylvania Sentinel correspondent, had this to say about how shopkeepers handled the crisis;


     "The shopper, of course, always needs a few extra coins in case he needs bus money home...The storekeeper, in turn, always wants a few extra coins to make change on large purchases or for regular customers. The duplicity which results is an interesting, if slightly tragic commentary on human behavior...The average storekeeper has two cash drawers, one (usually devoid of coins) for public display and one with a coin 'reserve' . " (10)
Jones explains further that the shopper had to show his wallet to indicate he had no coins and the shopkeeper surreptitiously showed the shopper the cash drawer devoid of coins. 



    The coronavirus pandemic has created unprecedented situations and challenges for the world in 2020, one of which is the ongoing coin shortage. Current theories are in line to a certain degree with historical similar shortages. Current coin compositions can be found at the US Mint website. (11) Most contain copper and nickel with a balance of zinc and manganese; the nickel itself is 25 percent "Ni."  A world nickel shortage since 2019, as reported by Reuters, indicates the high-demand for the chemical element and a vital  component in manufacture of electric vehicles. An article in June by Tim Treadgold in Forbes points the finger, yet again, at China, for a "hidden stockpiling" of the commodity, (13) Certainly, with the help of a few reports as this and some serious investigating query by social media conspiracy hawks, it wouldn't take much to discover the true reason for the coin shortage. And don't forget to include General Motors and Elon Musk in those theories.
Footnotes:

"prattle" /'pradl/ -- talk at length in a foolish or inconsequential way
 


Cited 
(2) Shinplaster, The Raleigh Weekly Standard, 06 May 1840, Page 1.
(3) Copper, The Miami Herald, 09 Dec 1915, Page 4.
(4) Egypt, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 24 Oct 1941, Page 33
(5) Cuba, New Jersey Herld-News, 13 Nov 1941, Page 32
(6) Coin Round-Ups, Pennsylvania Republican and Herald, 7 Dec 1942, Page 1.
(7) Vending Machines, The Kansas City Star, 26 June 1960, Page 131.
(8) Canada, The BC Times, 21 Jan 1975, Page 2.
(9) Plot, Wilkes-Barre Times Leader, 30 July 1975, Page 20.
(10) Ray Jones, PA Sentinel, 20 Dec 1975, Page 28


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Wednesday, August 12, 2020

COVID19--Heuristic Algorithmic Crashes--"HAL" REBOOTED


     "...I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that..."
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     Discovery One (EOC)-- Facing unprecedented input levels, state health department disease reporting systems are crashing across the board, leaving officials with blank faces unable to make reopening decisions. The problem isn't unique to the recent surge in cases, as well as increased testing results, but has been around since Washington state first discovered the abnormal presence of the coronavirus menace last spring. Since then, with the onset of an existential pandemic affecting everything from employment to tenant evictions, information technology systems are crashing. The following reports, curated from a variety of sources, indicate the degree of the problem:  (Note: As per the reported glitches, just how many are going unreported is uncertain)
12 August 2020--California

Tech Challenges Complicate California's COVID-19 Response

(TNS) - Before he became California governor last year, Gavin Newsom built his reputation as a tech-savvy Bay Area politician, who wrote a book arguing government should follow Silicon Valley's lead and embrace new technology. But five months into the biggest crisis of his governorship, technology problems have become major stumbling blocks to his coronavirus strategy.

12 August 2020-- Florida

Reporting glitch upends confidence as Florida adds 8,000 coronavirus cases

Coronavirus updates: Florida reaches 550,901 cases with 8,898 deaths; Palm Beach County has 37,934 cases with 970 deaths. * TO OUR READERS: The Palm Beach Post will continue to provide essential coverage of the coronavirus for free. You can have coronavirus news delivered directly to your inbox by signing up for our Coronavirus Newsletter.

12 August 2020--Kentucky

With computer glitch, state hits one-day coronavirus high - ABC 36 News

FRANKFORT, Ky. (WTVQ) - The state recorded its highest one-day total of new coronavirus cases Wednesday, partially because of a stack up in cases from a computer glitch in reporting but also because "the virus still is very real," Gov. Andy Beshear said.

11 August 2020--Oklahoma

894 New COVID-19 Cases Reported Tuesday In State, 820 More COVID-19 Cases Found In Backlog

A large number of new coronavirus cases were reported Tuesday and the state health department found a backlog of 820 cases, Oklahoma Interim Health Commissioner Lance Frye said. Frye said 894 new cases were tallied on Tuesday and the department found a backlog of 820 cases that was not reported.

07 August 2020--Iowa

Iowa Puts $21M in COVID-19 Aid Toward State Computer System

(TNS) - Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has transferred $21 million intended for Iowa coronavirus relief to help pay for a computer system already in the works before the pandemic. As of July 31, Reynolds has transferred $627.3 million from the $1.25 billion in federal funds Iowa got through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security, or CARES Act, passed by Congress in March, the Legislative Services Agency reported Wednesday.

26 July 2020--Texas

Dallas County Reports 605th COVID-19 Death, 800 New Cases

Dallas County officials reported 800 new cases and the county's 605th death related to the coronavirus on Sunday. The additional death was a Dallas man in his 40s who had been critically ill with the coronavirus in an area hospital. The man had underlying high-risk health conditions.

30 June 2020--Tennessee

Tennessee's COVID-19 reporting system shuts down for 9 hours due to high volumes of data : The Tennessee health department's COVID-19 daily reporting system experienced downtime on June 28 due to an unplanned shutdown, Times News reports.

The Tennessee health department's COVID-19 daily reporting system experienced downtime on June 28 due to an unplanned shutdown, reports. "An unplanned shutdown of the state surveillance system," which tracks COVID-19 testing and case/death counts, occurred at 3 a.m. on June 28, the Tennessee Department of Health told the publication.

07 May 2020--Minnesota

Minnesota reports 30 COVID-19 deaths, including two tied to food processing plants

Minnesota reported a single-day record of 30 deaths related to COVID-19 on Wednesday, including a worker in the 50s age range at the JBS plant in Worthington that has shut down amid a substantial outbreak of the infectious disease.

22 April 2020--Indiana

Daily coronavirus count dips, but Indiana official points out technical glitch

Indiana reported about 400 new cases of coronavirus both Tuesday and Wednesday, fewer than in many other days in the past. But state health officials warned that the lower numbers were not necessarily a reflection of what had actually occurred.

17 April 2020--Pennsylvania

Pa. underreported 18% of COVID deaths this week; state blames computer glitches

Wardle said that Gov. Tom Wolf was briefed on reporting issues by Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine and that the undercount was discussed again during an internal call today. He said the artificially low numbers had not affected policy decisions to ease aspects of the statewide shutdown, such as a recent move to reopen state liquor stores.

16 April 2020--Louisiana

Coronavirus numbers caught in reporting glitch

Errors in the Louisiana Department of Health's (LDH) recording of confirmed coronavirus cases have apparently hit Lincoln Parish for at least the second time. Wednesday's LDH update showed the parish with 41 positive cases, down from the 42 reported on Tuesday. But parish Director of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Kip Franklin disputes the finding.

09 April 2020--Tennessee

Nashville mayor: National database glitch affecting health departments across Tennessee

A technical problem with a national database is hampering the abilities of health departments across the state of Tennessee in reporting new COVID-19 cases.

21 March 2020-- Washington state

Flood of coronavirus data overwhelms Washington state's disease-reporting system, leading to lag in data

Even as the novel coronavirus has spread from Washington's cities to its small towns and rural communities, Department of Health (DOH) officials acknowledged Tuesday they're wrestling with another thorny problem from the pandemic: A flood of case data is overwhelming the disease-reporting system.

 

"Open the pod bay doors, HAL..."


     The above are just a few of the breakdowns of hardware on board spaceship Earth that have created major headaches for administrators, having sleepless nights trying to find a way to contain the virus amid surges, political stubbornness over relief legislation and the public at large in rebellion over simple mitigation mandates.
     The computer crashes are not restricted to infectious disease reporting. Unemployment has created chaos for many states with antiquated systems meant to deal with minor jobless claims being filed. 
      Is all of this being guided by some unforeseen force beyond the level of intelligent life in the universe? Perhaps it's all being controlled by the Heuristically Programmed ALgorithmic Computer, also known as "HAL"  on board Discovery One enroute to Jupiter...It appears 2001 is finally here.
    
Cited:

Credit, 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968), dir. Stanley Kubrick, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0062622/
IMMEDREL//ATTN"CD@TCNT//VIA:JC,CMD-CTRL//URGENT//UNCLSF
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