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Thursday, November 14, 2024

#COP29BAKU--Trump Climate Doctrine--NEITHER ATTAINABLE NOR SUSTAINABLE

WHITELIGHTNING AI RESEARCH//IMMEDREL//11/14/24/2130EST

#COP29Baku The Trump #Climate Doctrine 11/14/24/1830PST: Opposing both Inflation Reduction Act and the Paris Agreement, president elect faces hard choices developing realistic goal curbing carbon emissions, neither attainable nor sustainable. #COP29Azerbaijan
(Image credit: Ivanpah Solar Complex, Mojave Desert, California, The Guardian, 21 May 2023)

Begin Perplexity-AI

trump climate doctrine


Based on the election results and search information provided, here's an overview of what we can expect from Donald Trump's climate doctrine in his second term as president:
  1. Paris Agreement Withdrawal: Trump is likely to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement again, as he did during his first term
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    .     This time, he may go further by attempting to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which would make it extremely difficult for future administrations to rejoin international climate efforts
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  2. Deregulation: Trump is expected to roll back many of the Biden administration's climate regulations and policies
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    .     This includes potentially eliminating the new federal charge for methane emissions and supporting approvals for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals
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  3. Fossil Fuel Promotion: Trump has pledged to boost fossil fuel production, particularly oil and gas, under his "drill, baby, drill" mantra
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    .     He aims to increase production on federal lands and waters, potentially reversing Biden-era restrictions
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  4. Clean Energy Setbacks: While market forces may continue to drive some growth in renewable energy, Trump's policies are likely to slow the pace of clean energy investments and transitions
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    .     However, he may support nuclear energy development
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  5. Inflation Reduction Act: Trump has called for the repeal of what he terms the "green new deal," likely referring to the Inflation Reduction Act
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    .     While he may not be able to fully repeal the law, he could attempt to block or redirect future funding allocations
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  6. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Trump is expected to significantly reduce the EPA's role in climate regulation and potentially cut its budget and staffing
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  7. State and Local Action: In response to federal rollbacks, states like California and other members of the U.S. Climate Alliance may take on a larger role in advancing climate policies
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  8. International Climate Leadership: The U.S. is likely to cede global climate leadership to other nations, potentially China, which could reshape international climate negotiations and cooperation
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  9. Legal Challenges: Environmental groups and states are expected to challenge many of Trump's climate policy rollbacks in court, as they did during his first term
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  10. Economic Focus: Trump's climate doctrine will likely prioritize short-term economic growth and energy independence over long-term climate mitigation efforts
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While Trump's policies may significantly slow U.S. federal climate action, it's important to note that market forces, state-level initiatives, and international pressure may continue to drive some progress on clean energy and emissions reductions, albeit at a potentially slower pace
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trump climate policy neither attainable nor sustainable


Based on the search results and the recent election outcome, it appears that Donald Trump's climate and environmental policies for his upcoming second term are likely to face significant challenges in terms of both attainability and sustainability. Here's an analysis of the key points:

Rollback of Climate Regulations

Trump has pledged to reverse many of the Biden administration's climate initiatives:
  • He aims to terminate what he calls the "green new deal," likely referring to the Inflation Reduction Act of 2023
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  • Trump plans to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement again and potentially from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
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  • He intends to weaken air pollution regulations and continue boosting oil and gas production
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However, completely dismantling existing climate policies may prove difficult:
  • Many clean energy initiatives are already underway and have economic momentum
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  • Legal challenges could slow down regulatory rollbacks, as happened during Trump's first term
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  • Some climate-friendly policies have bipartisan support, such as clean energy development in both red and blue states
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Economic and Technological Realities

Trump's energy policies face economic headwinds:
  • The renewable energy sector is booming, with 40% of U.S. electricity now coming from renewable sources
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  • Solar and wind energy have become cost-competitive with fossil fuels
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  • The global push towards clean energy, especially in Europe and China, may limit the impact of U.S. policy changes
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International Implications

Withdrawing from global climate commitments could have negative consequences:
  • It would diminish U.S. influence in shaping global climate outcomes
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  • Other countries, particularly the EU and China, may step up to fill the leadership gap
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  • The U.S. could lose its competitive edge in the clean energy race
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Implementation Challenges

Enacting sweeping changes to climate policy may face obstacles:
  • Trump's previous attempts to roll back environmental regulations often faced legal challenges and were not always successful
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  • Changes to federal rules require evidence-based analysis, which takes time and resources
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  • Some states, like California, are likely to resist federal rollbacks and continue pursuing their own climate initiatives
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Long-Term Sustainability

The long-term viability of Trump's climate approach is questionable:
  • Climate scientists warn that failing to address emissions could lead to unmanageable climate impacts
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  • The global trend towards decarbonization may leave the U.S. economically disadvantaged if it doesn't participate
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  • Public opinion and market forces continue to push for cleaner energy solutions
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In conclusion, while Trump may be able to implement some of his proposed climate policy changes, the full extent of his agenda faces significant hurdles in terms of attainability. Moreover, the long-term sustainability of a fossil fuel-focused energy policy is in doubt given global trends and the increasing competitiveness of clean energy technologies. The tension between Trump's proposed policies and broader economic and environmental realities suggests that his climate approach may be neither fully attainable nor sustainable in the long run.

Further Reading:

Q&A: How a second Trump term will impact environmental and climate policy

UCLA School of Law’s Cara Horowitz and Ann Carlson discuss regulations, litigation and California’s pivotal role
How Trump’s second term will affect climate and environment | UCLA

Molly Lempriere


WHITELIGHTNING AI RESEARCH//IMMEDREL//11/14/24/2130EST

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